The Chicago Bears will soon have to make a franchise altering decision at the most important position in football in the coming weeks.

Bears general manager Ryan Poles will be forced to choose between keeping quarterback Justin Fields as the starter in 2024 or drafting his replacement with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

It's going to be a tough decision to make, and one that will unquestionably change the future of the Bears' franchise.

The Bears opted to keep Fields as the starter in 2023 despite having the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Bears instead traded the top pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for wide receiver DJ Moore, the Panthers' 2023 first-round selection, a late-second-round pick in 2023, a 2024 first-round selection and a 2025 second-round pick.

The Panthers' 2024 first-round selection has now become the first overall pick for the Bears along with having their own selection at the ninth overall pick. The decision to retain Fields turned into a 7-10 season with Fields posting career-highs completion percentage (61.4), passing yards (2,562), and passer rating (86.3). However, was the improved performance enough to inspire long-term confidence. That's the question Poles will be forced to answer.

One thing is for certain, the Bears will either keep Fields and trade the top pick or draft a quarterback with the number one overall pick and trade Fields. The trade value to trade away the top pick is expected to result in "two future first-rounders on top of this year's pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player" for the Bears. The trade value to move Fields is expected to be a 2024 second round pick with additional future picks possibly included.

With that in mind, let's explore what a trade for Fields could potentially look like for the Bears to gauge what could happen in the weeks ahead.

Teams Potentially Interested in Justin Fields:

Last month, our very own Wendell Ferreira laid out five potential teams who could explore trading for Fields leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft.

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Las Vegas Raiders
5. Washington Commanders

Of those five teams, two will be picking in the top three selections, essentially ruling them out of trading for Fields in favor of drafting a rookie of their own. The Commanders will be picking with the second overall pick and the Patriots will be picking with the third overall pick. That leaves us with the Falcons (8th overall pick), Raiders (13th overall pick), and Steelers (20th overall pick) as potential partners who should expect be outside of the range to select a top rookie passer.

The Steelers seem like the odd team out considering head coach Mike Tomlin more than likely will prefer a more seasoned veteran as his next quarterback after starting Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky over the past two seasons.

The Falcons and Raiders seem like the two obvious connections. Atlanta just recently hired a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson. The duo could view Fields has a young and dynamic quarterback who could lift their explosive offense to new heights.

The Raiders made the decision to keep Antonio Pierce as the head coach and hired Tom Telesco as their next general manager. Telesco and Poles have some trade history between the two after Poles traded pass rusher Khalil Mack to the Chargers. The Raiders also added former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to their offensive coordinator search who has obvious recent connections with Fields.

Previous Similar Trade Compensation:

Finding previous precedent for this type of trade is tricky and it all depends on how each individual person values Fields as a quarterback. He's only 24-years-old and now has three seasons of NFL experience as a starting quarterback. That alone holds value. Fields also has the potential to be a dynamic weapon at the quarterback position if given the right environment to utilize his skillset.

However, Fields hasn’t proven to be a quarterback who can singlehandedly win you games, nor has he played at a consistent level for a sustained period of time. 

Let's take a look at some recent comparable quarterback trades made ahead of the draft to potentially gauge the potential compensation the Bears could receive.

– Baker Mayfield traded to the Panthers for a conditional 5th round pick
– Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick
– Carson Wentz traded to the Commanders for a 2nd round and two 3rd round picks
– Sam Darnold traded to the Panthers for a 2nd round, 4th round, and 6th round picks
– Carson Wentz traded to the Colts for a 1st round and 3rd round picks

These trades obviously excluded the massive trades made to acquire top-10 quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. Based on the precedent and Fields' age/talent, Poles should be asking for something in the range of the Darnold trade and the two Wentz trades.

Essentially, the starting price will be a low first or high second round pick along with an additional future pick ranging from a second-fourth round selection. The good news for the Bears is that with the Falcons and Raiders as potentially highly interested suitors, Poles can cause the two to bid against each other. With that in mind, here's my prediction for what the Fields trade could look like for the Bears.

Prediction: Justin Fields is traded to the Falcons in exchange for a 2024 second round pick (43rd overall) and a 2025 second round pick

In the end, the Bears come away with another top pick in the draft and recoup a second round pick after trading their own away to acquire Montez Sweat while adding an additional second round pick next year. Then, the Bears are free to select their top quarterback prospect with the number one overall pick. The mock draft below lays out how the draft could go for Chicago following this trade prediction.

Bears Mock Draft Monday: Justin Fields trade makes an immediate impact

Another look at the Bears’ draft options