How the numbers show that one offseason decision should be extremely easy for the Chicago Bears
One of the Chicago Bears' toughest upcoming offseason decisions shouldn't be tough at all if you take a look at the numbers. Chicago running back David Montgomery, a former third-round draft pick out of Iowa State, is set to be a free agent after the 2022 season. The Bears need to decide if they want […]
One of the Chicago Bears' toughest upcoming offseason decisions shouldn't be tough at all if you take a look at the numbers.
Chicago running back David Montgomery, a former third-round draft pick out of Iowa State, is set to be a free agent after the 2022 season.
The Bears need to decide if they want to re-sign him, but the decision should be fairly easy for general manager Ryan Poles.
Chicago doesn't need to even consider bringing Montgomery back. And that's mostly because of the emergence of Khalil Herbert.
Herbert only has two more rushing yards this season than Montgomery, but he has 52 fewer carries.
Prior to suffering a hip injury in Week 10, Herbert was in the midst of a wildly efficient campaign, accruing 6.0 yards per carry. When we add the context of rush yards over expectation, it gets even more impressive. Herbert racked up 204 rushing yards over expectation, fourth-most among running backs this season, despite only having 108 carries. His 1.9 rush yards over expectation is best among all backs with at least 50 carries.
This isn't a Bears thing, either. David Montgomery has minus-13 rush yards over expectation this season. Herbert stands in stark contrast.
I'm never a fan of giving running backs big contracts. I don't necessarily think it's a "plug n play" position, but it's certainly much easier to find a running back than it is to find a quarterback or an edge rusher. And considering the ballooning contracts we're seeing in the NFL, it's wise for any team to save money at the running back position if they can.
With Herbert playing at a higher level than Montgomery, it makes sense to let Montgomery walk, and add a cheap backup running back who can be an asset in the passing game.
Herbert has two years left on his rookie contract, so this would give the Bears essentially two years of salary relief at the position.
The only way I'd bring Montgomery back next season is if he agrees to a "cheap" contract, which I don't see happening. I think he'll explore the market and someone will give him more cash than the Bears are likely willing to give him. And that's fine. The Bears will be alright without him.
Featured image via Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
