One sportsbook is low-balling a Justin Fields player prop
Justin Fields is one of the NFL’s biggest question marks at the quarterback position heading into the 2022 season. While he continues to develop as a passer, he often showcased his ability to make plays with his legs as a rookie. In fact, BetMGM released Fields’ player prop for regular season rushing yards, and Bears […]
Justin Fields is one of the NFL’s biggest question marks at the quarterback position heading into the 2022 season. While he continues to develop as a passer, he often showcased his ability to make plays with his legs as a rookie. In fact, BetMGM released Fields’ player prop for regular season rushing yards, and Bears fans should be sprinting to the betting window to place their wagers.
BetMGM is offering what I believe to be a soft line for Fields’ regular season rushing yards in 2022. The sportsbook has the number set at 499.5 rushing yards (-115), which is a bit conservative, in my opinion.
Fields played in 12 games for the Bears in 2021, starting in 10 of those. He rushed for a total of 420 yards and two touchdowns on 72 carries. That adds up to be 35 rushing yards per game. In order to cash the over of 499.5 rushing yards, Fields will need to average just 29.4 yards per game on the ground.
Sounds easy, right?
Volume will be critical with this particular bet. Fields averaged six carries per game last season under ultra conservative play calling from head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who swapped play calling duties multiple times throughout the year.
After letting go of Nagy and Lazor this offseason, Chicago hired HC Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy to bring a sense of stability to Halas Hall. Eberflus is a defensive-minded head coach, meaning that Getsy will call the plays without interruption this season.
I anticipate Getsy to cater to Fields’ strengths, using a heavy dosage of RPO.
Bears fans did not get a clear answer to what exactly Fields can bring to the table. By bringing in a new coaching staff with total job security, I expect to see Chicago use Fields in a variety of different ways. In order to turn the corner on this rebuild, the Bears need to know what Fields can do, and the only way to find out is to cut him loose.
I have no doubt that Fields will take a major leap in his second season in the NFL. Oddsmakers are coming in too low on Fields’ player props, giving the rest of us an edge in betting over his rushing total. I am projecting Fields to finish between 600-800 rushing yards on the season, cashing this bet with ease.
Featured image via Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports
