Chiefs 2025 NFL Free Agency: Predicting a long-term contract extension in Kansas City for Pro Bowl RG Trey Smith
The Kansas City Chiefs have a decision to make regarding the future of starting right guard Trey Smith. According to a recent report from The Athletic's Nate Taylor, the Chiefs are not expected to use the franchise or transition tag on Smith (or any pending free agent). This isn't terribly surprising news because of the restrictive nature […]
The Kansas City Chiefs have a decision to make regarding the future of starting right guard Trey Smith.
According to a recent report from The Athletic's Nate Taylor, the Chiefs are not expected to use the franchise or transition tag on Smith (or any pending free agent). This isn't terribly surprising news because of the restrictive nature of having all that salary cap money ($25M for franchise and $21M for transition) tied up while working toward a long-term deal. It doesn't allow flexibility to make moves in free agency or otherwise.
However, this doesn't mean the Chiefs will give up on retaining the former 2021 sixth-round pick and four-year starter at right guard. What could a potential long-term deal for Smith look like? We'll explore that below.
What could a long-term contract extension look like for Chiefs RG Trey Smith?
There are some numbers that we need to consider with Smith.
The highest-paid right guard in the NFL by AAV is Atlanta Falcons RG Chris Lindstrom at $20.5M. The average AAV of the top-5 right guard contracts in the NFL is $19.092M. The average percentage of the salary cap among those top-5 contracts is 6.88%.
For the sake of this exercise, let's say the league sets the salary cap at the low $277.5M for the 2025 NFL season.
I expect the Chiefs to offer a deal that mimics Creed Humphrey's percentage of the salary cap at 7%. At a $277.5 million salary cap, that'd average out to a $19.425M AAV for Smith. You could offer him a four-year deal at $77.7M with a high percentage of guaranteed money in the contract's first two years. You could also offer him a five-year deal at $97.125M, spreading the guaranteed money more.
Could he exceed the $100M mark made by Lindstrom on a five-year deal on the open market in March? It's certainly a possibility, if not likely. By and large, Smith is expected to be the top offensive lineman to hit free agency, and his on-field success throughout his four years in the league gives him market-resetting potential. He didn't allow a single sack last season, earning his first Pro Bowl honor, and has missed only one game in his entire NFL career.
No matter what weighs into Smith's decision beyond the financials, NFL players and teams often keep it business in contract negotiations. I'd expect the Chiefs to have a number in mind for Smith, and if the two sides can't agree, they'll split. For better or worse, Veach has drawn a line in the sand regarding contracts with players such as Orlando Brown Jr., who ended up elsewhere.
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