The Bengals' 5 most likely first-round targets at 28th overall

Lots of T's are being crossed and i's are being dotted around the NFL right now. Today marks the deadline for all 32 clubs to meet with NFL Draft prospects before next week's Draft.   The work is mostly done, and the picture gets clearer by the day, until the draft begins and everyone knows nothing […]

John Sheeran Cincinnati Bengals News Writer
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Lots of T's are being crossed and i's are being dotted around the NFL right now. Today marks the deadline for all 32 clubs to meet with NFL Draft prospects before next week's Draft.  

The work is mostly done, and the picture gets clearer by the day, until the draft begins and everyone knows nothing once more.

It's usually simple deciphering where the Cincinnati Bengals are looking at in the draft; follow the free agency moves and how many visits are dedicated to each position.  Combining research, history, trends, and news all together helps narrow things down even more, especially from a first-round outlook.

We know the visits, and we know the positions of need. All we need is a way to predict which players will be available at 28th overall. This is where ESPN's Draft Day Predictor tool comes in handy.

ESPN Analytics has calculated the percentages of how likely every major draft prospect will be available at any given pick, with the latest update occurring this past Monday, April 17. These percentages shouldn't change too much over the next week.

Let's begin by crossing off some of the top prospects the Bengals have been linked to in some fashion over the past several weeks. We'll use 33% as the cutoff, so if there's less than a one-third chance the player falls to 28, he's eliminated. Any player not included in this list either has a 0% chance of falling to the pick, or isn't expected to go in the first round at all.

  • Darnell Wright, Tackle, Tennessee

    • ~8% chance of availability
  • Calijah Kancey, Interior Defender, Pitt
    • ~23% chance of availability
  • Myles Murphy, Edge Defender, Clemson
    • ~24% chance of availability
  • Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

    • ~27% chance of availability
  • Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

    • ~32% chance of availability

A few of these names, like Wright, Murphy, and Kincaid, are definite first-round targets for the Bengals. They had Murphy and Kincaid in for visits recently, and met with Wright at the combine. All three play positions the team is interested in targeting. Kancey and Banks are both logical fits as well, but their connections to the team are more of a projection on our part.

It's not a guarantee that any of those five would be picked by the Bengals should they fall all the way the end of the first round, especially when several other names are more likely to be available, but they'll surely be highlighted if they slip through the cracks.

Before arriving at the five most likely names, there are a few players who didn't make the cut, but were considered, for various reasons. They are either not strongly linked to the Bengals, or the 28th pick is just too early for them to come off the board in their eyes.

Dawand Jones, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State: The journey of Jones' draft stock has been wild these past few months, but he'll ultimately land where he belongs in the second round. If he's still there at 60, the Bengals may just pull the trigger.  

Darnell Washington, Tight End, Georgia: I think there's at least some interest, but not enough to pull the trigger at 28. There just wasn't enough production on tape. He's an ideal Day 2 pick.

Kelee Ringo, Cornerback, Georgia: Like with his former teammate in Washington, there's at least something here linking the team to Ringo, but I don't see him above the other names.


The Bengals’ 5 most likely first-round picks at 28th overall

Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

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He may not be the No. 1 overall player on their board, but if Mayer is available, I expect him to be the pick. There’s no player that makes more sense out of the plausible options.

Mayer is one of the cleanest prospects in this entire class. His production profile is elite after spending two seasons carrying Notre Dame's offense. And while he may not possess elite speed for a tight end, the discourse surrounding his athleticism has actually made it an underrated part of his game. He also grew up a Bengals fan just 15 minutes south of downtown Cincinnati.

Tight end remains a short-term and long-term need for the Bengals' offense after both Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample inked one-year deals. If Mayer isn't the Week 1 starter, he'll be starter long before the playoffs. This is a no-brainer if he slips past the Dallas Cowboys at pick No. 26.

  • Interest shown: Combine meeting and Top-30 visit
  • Chance of availability: ~43%

Emmanuel Forbes, Cornerback, Mississippi State

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Factoring in need, value, and likelihood of lasting to the 28th pick, Forbes is the best bet for who the Bengals will be selecting in the first round.

It's more than just the usual trope about the team's infatuation with first-round cornerbacks. Forbes' production and athleticism both match what he put on tape against SEC competition. He's everything you want in a first-round prospect, and if he weighed 10 pounds more than he does now, he would not make it to where the Bengals pick. 

The Bengals need immediate depth and a long-term starter at the position if they decide to stay true to their ways and not offer a third contract to Chidobe Awuzie. Forbes can push for playing time immediately if Awuzie isn't ready to go like he expects to be, and even if Awuzie starts Week 1, the Bengals know better than most how quickly depth at the position will be tested throughout such a long season. 

  • Interest shown: Combine meeting and Top-30 visit
  • Chance of availability: ~68%

Cam Smith, Cornerback, South Carolina

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Newsflash if you’re late to the party: The Bengals really love this cornerback class. They’ve met with over a dozen of them in some capacity during the pre-draft process, including another ballhawk in Smith. 

Leading up to his final year at USC, Smith was consistently mocked in the first round, and is now projected anywhere between the 20s to the entire second. Injuries have partially plagued his overall profile, but the production and athleticism is there for everyone to see.

If Forbes is gone along with the other top corners, Smith makes sense as the next guy on the board. 

  • Interest shown: Pro Day workout coached
  • Chance of availability: ~95% 

Bryan Bresee, Interior Defender, Clemson

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It’s been a long, long time since the Bengals drafted a defensive lineman in the first round, 22 years to be exact. Drafting so late in the order can lead to trends being bucked, much like the Bengals going with a first-round safety for the first time in 34 years last year by selecting Dax Hill.

Bresee fits the bill as the pass-rusher that can snap the two decade-long streak. His lack of elite production following a promising freshman season is concerning, regardless of extenuating circumstances he dealt with, and that's why he could ultimately slide out of the first round. On the other hand, His top-tier athleticism and character for how young he is makes him a target worth mentioning. 

The fit makes sense too, as the Bengals can use Bresee in tandem with B.J. Hill at 3-technique, and also at 5-technique.

  • Interest shown: Combine meeting and Pro Day workout coached
  • Chance of availability: ~71%

Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

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Let’s lead with this: I don’t think the Bengals will take Gibbs in the first round, or at all unless they trade back from 28. There’s about a 99.99% chance one of the aforementioned four other targets will be available. 

In the disaster scenario that they're all gone and Gibbs remains unpicked, the Bengals will have to consider such a seamless fit into their offense. 

Gibbs' receiving ability is untouched in this class of talented backs, and he fits all the criteria they look for outside of ideal size. They'd either hold onto Joe Mixon via a pay cut, or look to other options ala Ezekiel Elliott to create a new backfield tandem. 

  • Interest shown: Combine meeting
  • Chance of availability: ~79%