The story of the Cincinnati Bengals' 2025 NFL Draft class will not end after the 2025 season, but the first chapter can certainly be a positive one to look back on.

Good results first begin with realistic expectations. Certain players are expected to play more than others, but even those with playing time already locked in need fair goals that match who they currently are as new NFL players. 

That's the goal of this exercise. We're going to lay out achievable marks each of Cincinnati's six draft picks can reasonably hit based on who they were in college, what rookies of recent memory did in their shoes, and the roles in store for them when the pads come on.

Let's set some goals.

EDGE Shemar Stewart

Goal: Pass rush win rate of 10% 

Nobody in the group needs fair expectations attached to him more than Stewart. Being the first-round pick comes with a heavy burden. If the Bengals want to win the Super Bowl this season, they need the 17th overall pick to be one of their best pass rushers immediately. Expecting him to be atop the group, however, is unrealistic. Trey Hendrickson, Joseph Ossai, and Myles Murphy should all have larger expectations. Putting Stewart fourth in the expected leaderboard is more than fair.

The average fourth-highest pass rush win rate of the last five Super Bowl winners is 10.94%, according to Pro Football Focus. George Karlaftis, the Kansas City Chiefs' first-round pick in 2022, posted a win rate of 8.7% that season. Terrell Lewis of the 2021 Los Angeles Rams won just 8.1% of his rushes in his second season as a former third-round selection. 

For the record, Murphy boasted Cincinnati's second-best win last year at 10.2%. Stewart's career win rate from Texas A&M was 11.4%. If he can stay over 10% with his more experienced teammates still besting him, the Bengals may have themselves a fairly decent unit attacking the quarterback. 

Shemar Stewart had his way against NFL draftee of Bengals’ AFC North rival while practicing at 2025 Senior Bowl

The rivalry continues in the AFC North.

LB Demetrius Knight Jr.

Goal: 12 missed tackles or fewer

Tackling is not a weakness of Knight's game. He would go several weeks without missing a tackle for South Carolina and a few rough outings would stand out among his clean sheets. The player he's replacing, Germaine Pratt, missed 19 last season. Knight can't find himself anywhere within close range of that number. 

Missed tackles, admittedly, aren't always indicative of bad linebacker play. Defensive Player of the Year finalist Zack Baun had the second-most for a linebacker last year with 23. Considering the issue was so very prevalent for the Bengals specifically in 2024, it's an area where Knight needs to help them improve.

34 of 42 rookie linebackers who played at least 20% of their defense's snaps since 2020 managed to keep their missed tackles at 10 or under. We'll bump Knight's line to 12 since he'll play significantly more than just 20% of the season. 

G Dylan Fairchild

Goal: Win and maintain starting left guard spot

This is pretty simple. Stewart doesn't have to be a starter to have an instant impact, and Knight being drafted as early as he was virtually locks him in to start with his 25th birthday on the horizon. Fairchild becoming a Week 1 starter is expected, but not guaranteed. It's his job to make it a guarantee.

Precedent also adds pressure on his shoulders. Cordell Volson came in as a fourth-round pick out of North Dakota State and overtook Jackson Carman as the starting left guard before making his rookie debut in 2022. Fairchild, a third-round pick from mighty Georgia, will have to beat out Volson and at least one of Cody Ford or Lucas Patrick to achieve the same start of his career. 

Taking, and then keeping, the left guard job is how Fairchild can can hush criticisms of Cincinnati drafting him a round before many expected him to go off the board.   

LB Barrett Carter

Goal: 200 special teams snaps  

I'd like to set a defensive goal for Carter, but that's hard to do when he's already slotted to become Logan Wilson's backup at MIKE linebacker. Playing for Wilson in case injuries pop up will be expected. He may even carve out some playing time in designated personnel groupings, but it's tough to quantify out the gate.

Special teams is the area where Carter needs to impress the most as a rookie. 311 snaps went out the door when Akeem Davis-Gaither left. Most of them will fall in Oren Burks' hands, but there's still much for Carter to do when the offense and defense are on the sidelines.

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OL Jalen Rivers

Goal: Stay available for 13 games

The biggest injury risk the Bengals took in this year's draft is Rivers, who missed 17 games in four years of legitimate playing time due to three separate injuries at Miami. His lone healthy season came in 2023 when he started all 13 games at left tackle. 

Rivers is talented enough to potentially start for the Bengals are either guard spot, but his durability concerns helped drop him to the fifth round of the draft. Winning a starting job this year is not as important as proving he can stay available when called on to play.

If Rivers can suit up for 75% of his rookie season, Cincinnati should be able to utilize his services when they're needed. That'll go a long way next year when his opportunities potentially expand.

RB Tahj Brooks

Goal: Exceed Samaje Perine OR Zack Moss by Week 9

Another offensive player not expected to start, Brooks is a still a safe bet to make the team. It would just be surprising if he wasn't one of the top three backs on the depth chart when the back-half of the season begins.

Brooks carried the ball plenty for Texas Tech but still enters the Bengals' backfield with fresher legs compared to Perine and Moss, two veterans vying for their own playing time behind Chase Brown. Proving his chops in pass protection while also being a fiend for yards after contact would urge the coaches to get him on the field more and start establishing a long-term partnership with Brown. 

The first half of the year may fall into more experienced hands, but when the games begin mattering more and more, Brooks should strive to have a slightly larger role.

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