It’s nearly impossible for an expansion team in the NFL to be good from the get go. Even with new teams-friendly models like the league had in 1995, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers combined for 11 wins in their inaugural season — then, both reached the championship round in Year 2.

The most feasible path to acquire ready-made talent and have some success early on is via free agency. The expansion draft is helpful to build depth, but teams are exposing those players for a reason, and the regular draft is the best way to get high-end talent, but young players take some time to develop.

This is a series of posts about what a hypothetical expansion franchise would look like in 2025. The A to Z Sports team built the St. Louis Arches, a fictional expansion team. We will do everything from a football operation perspective — expansion draft (and we involved our writers to get a fresh perspective from all teams), regular draft, free agency, and also building the top positions on the front office and coaching staff.

Everything is hypothetical, so take it with a grain of salt. But it's a good exercise to understand how a situation like that would work and how real teams would handle it.

This is the part to go into details with free agency. We will also talk about the entire process and go further in the regular draft, expansion draft, and coaching staff/front office.

Rules

For free agency, we had to go back in time a little bit, because the top free agents have already been signed at this point. So this is the exercise: We analyzed every free agent signed in 2025, and added a $2 million "bad team tax" for each. We excluded some specific situations (for example, Davante Adams wouldn't want to sign with an expansion franchise in St. Louis at this point of his career) to make things more realistic. For players still available in free agency right now, the base to measure the salary was the previous contract.

If the player is still worth his salary and makes sense for the Arches, we would sign him. In order to keep the numbers understandable and not overly complex, there won't be a difference between average per year and Year 1 cap hit.

Overall strategy

It’s harder to build a good offense than a good defense via free agency, especially in regards to skill positions. With the quarterback and running back positions relatively settled via the expansion draft, the additions at skill positions were Josh Palmer and Hayden Hurst, competent if unspectacular players.

The offensive focus was on the offensive line, with big additions at tackle and starting-caliber additions at guard and center.

The star power, though, was on defense. The Arches were able to sign big-ticket players and a lot of talent all around the unit. In total, St. Louis would spend $109.95 million on yearly average.

Top players added

CB DJ Reed ($18 million)

It’s hard to find cornerbacks available, and even non-elite players at the position get big deals in free agency. Paulson Adebo was a consideration here, but Reed has been better (even if a little bit older) and is cheaper. His flexibility to play inside and outside also helps a new roster.

T Cam Robinson ($14 million)

After the Texans killed David Carr early in his career, the main priority for the Arches was to build a playable offensive line for Cam Ward. Robinson isn’t a star, but he is a solid starter who would provide stability for the offensive line.

LB Dre Greenlaw ($12.5 million)

This signing is about attitude. Ideally, teams wouldn’t spend a lot on the off-ball linebacker position, but the Arches have a lot to spend anyway and they needed as much talent as possible. Greenlaw also brings energy to the defense.

S Justin Reid ($12.5 million)

Top safeties are making a lot of money these days, so getting Reid for this amount seemed like a great deal.

WR Josh Palmer ($11.6 million)

It was impossible to find great wide receivers via any avenue — expansion draft, regular draft, free agency. Maybe a trade could be a possibility here, but we didn’t go that far. Meanwhile, Palmer would be a capable X receiver for a reasonable price tag.

EDGEs Za'Darius Smith ($11.5 million) and Jadeveon Clowney ($10 million)

These are the two biggest bets of the process. The Arches were able to add some strong depth pieces at the edge position, but Smith and Clowney bring star power in their respective areas — Za’Darius as a pass rusher, and Jadeveon as an elite run stopper. They would have a clear path to start for a decent cost.

Other signings

• CB Kendall Fuller ($7.5 million)
• DT Levi Onwuzurike ($6 million)
• T Cornelius Lucas ($ 5.25 million)
• G Teven Jenkins ($5 million)
• C Josh Myers ($4 million)
• S Julian Blackmon ($3.7 million)
• DT Montravius Adams ($2.6 million)
• G Dalton Risner ($ 2.4 million)
• K Eddy Pineiro ($2 million)
• CB Asante Samuel Jr. ($1.8 million)
• TE Hayden Hurst ($1.1 million)