Hypothetical expansion draft would shake up rosters across the league with bold rules and tough decisions for all 32 NFL teams
Expansions are some of the more exciting times in the NFL. You build a new team, a new brand, another city and the fanbase get to root for a local franchise. The rest of the league also gets involved, giving up players to help build the new roster.No, unfortunately that won't happen any time soon. […]
Expansions are some of the more exciting times in the NFL. You build a new team, a new brand, another city and the fanbase get to root for a local franchise. The rest of the league also gets involved, giving up players to help build the new roster.
No, unfortunately that won't happen any time soon. But that doesn't preclude us from having an exercise about what the first expansion franchise since the Houston Texans in 2002 would look like.
So the A to Z Sports team built the St. Louis Arches, a fictional expansion franchise. We will do everything from a football operation perspective — expansion draft (and we involved our writers to get a fresh perspective from all teams), regular draft, free agency, and also building the top positions on the front office and coaching staff.
Everything is hypothetical, so take it with a grain of salt. But it's a good exercise to understand how a situation like that would work and how real teams would handle it.
In this main article, we will talk about everything and build the 90-man roster. If you want to go into details over each topic, there is more content when you click on the subheadings.
Front office/coaching staff
As an expansion franchise, the first step is to hire the people who will be in charge of the football operation. Especially because everything is new, it's imperative to choose people who have done it before, so they have a clear sense of what an NFL operation looks like. It's better if the leaders know each other.
Mike McCarthy is the perfect option here as a head coach. I know it's easy to say he was a product of Aaron Rodgers with the Green Bay Packers, and the final years of his tenure there were complicated, but McCarthy helped reshape the franchise and was instrumental to Rodgers' development — have you watched his tape from the 2005 preseason?
Then McCarthy went to the Cowboys and yes, had some shortcomings in the playoffs, but that's more on the front office. Dallas had two 12-win seasons between 2008 and 2019, and three of them in five years under McCarthy. McCarthy might not offer a high ceiling, but he gives an expansion team the floor of competence it needs.
The coaching staff will also have fellow Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson as the offensive coordinator, and rising assistant Christian Parker as the defensive coordinator.
The general manager choice is Reggie McKenzie, currently the Tennessee Titans vice president of football advisor. He worked in the Packers front office for almost two decades, so he knows McCarthy fairly well, and spent seven seasons (2012-2018) as the Oakland Raiders general manager. If you look at what the Raiders had done before McKenzie and what they've done after him, it's easy to see how successful he was.
In real life, he spent the last few years as a senior personnel executive for the Miami Dolphins before going to the Titans this offseason.
Expansion draft
Since we're already past free agency and the draft in real life, the A to Z Sports expansion draft will have some adjusted rules compared to what happened back in 1995, 1999, and 2002. Each NFL team will be forced to leave 12 players unprotected from the current 90-man roster, but players with zero or one accrued season are automatically protected.
These are the detailed rules:
1. Each current NFL team has to leave 12 players unprotected.
2. ⁠Players with 0 or 1 accrued seasons are automatically protected and can't be on the list. Players with no-trade clauses can't be added either.
3. ⁠If the player is taken, the expansion team will absorb both his future salaries and signing bonus prorations, so it can be a useful tool to unload veteran contracts.
4. ⁠The list is final, meaning that teams can't withdraw a player after another one has been selected.
5. ⁠The expansion team can get a maximum of two players from each NFL team, and a maximum of 40 players.
If you want to see everything in detail, click here. But these are the players selected and their cap hits:
- QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons ($40 million)
- DT DJ Reader, Detroit Lions ($12.933 million)
- LB Germaine Pratt, Cincinnati Bengals ($8.183 million)
- TE Austin Hooper, New England Patriots ($5 million)
- WR Allen Lazard, New York Jets ($4.61 million)
- WR Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans ($4.572 million)
- DT Malcolm Roach, Denver Broncos ($4.25 million)
- LB Damone Clark, Dallas Cowboys ($3.466 million)
- G Cordell Volson, Cincinnati Bengals ($3.139 million)
- WR Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs ($2.052 million)
- RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills ($1.975 million)
- WR Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1.75 million)
- P Ryan Wright, Minnesota Vikings ($1.75 million)
- WR Braxton Berrios, Houston Texans ($1.67 million)
- ED DeMarvin Leal, Pittsburgh Steelers ($1.65 million)
- TE Jeremy Ruckert, New York Jets ($1.605 million)
- S Marte Mapu, New England Patriots ($1.517 million)
- T Storm Norton, Atlanta Falcons ($1.5 million)
- G Liam Eichenberg, Miami Dolphins ($1.337 million)
- S Dane Belton, New York Giants ($1.296 million)
- T Matt Pryor, Philadelphia Eagles (1.275 million)
- LS Nick Moore, Baltimore Ravens ($1.25 million)
- ED Dylan Horton, Houston Texans ($1.23 million)
- DT Tyler Lacy, Jacksonville Jaguars ($1.201 million)
- RB Alexander Mattison, Miami Dolphins ($1.197 million)
- RB Khalil Herbert, Indianapolis Colts ($1.197 million)
- CB Corey Ballentine, Indianapolis Colts ($1.197 million)
- LB D'Marco Jackson, New Orleans Saints ($1.179 million)
- CB Cam Mitchell, Cleveland Browns ($1.114 million)
- T Jamarco Jones, Detroit Lions ($1.1 million)
- CB Josh Hayes, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1.081 million)
- QB Tanner McKee, Philadelphia Eagles ($1.076 million)
- C Luke Wypler, Cleveland Browns ($1.074 million)
- S Tony Jefferson, Los Angeles Chargers ($1.055 million)
- CB Ja'Marcus Ingram, Buffalo Bills ($1.033 million)
- RB Chris Brooks, Green Bay Packers ($1.03 million)
- WR Bo Melton, Green Bay Packers ($1.03 million)
- TE Donald Parham Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers ($1.03 million)
- G Ben Cleveland, Baltimore Ravens ($1.03 million)
- ED Boogie Basham, Carolina Panthers ($1.03 million)
Free agency
For normal free agency, we had to go back in time a little bit, because the top free agents have already been signed at this point. So this is the exercise: We analyzed every free agent signed in 2025, and added a $2 million "bad team tax" in each. We excluded some specific situations (for example, Davante Adams wouldn't want to sign with an expansion franchise in St. Louis at this point of his career) to make things more realistic. If the player is still available right now, we went with the average per year figure of their last deals.
If the player is still worth his salary and makes sense for the Arches, we would sign him. In order to keep the numbers understandable and not overly complex, there won't be a difference between average per year and Year 1 cap hit. Again, if you want more details about the process, click here.
These are the free agents the St. Louis Arches added:
- WR Josh Palmer ($11.6 million)
- TE Hayden Hurst ($1.1 million)
- T Cam Robinson ($14 million)
- T Cornelius Lucas ($ 5.25 million)
- G Teven Jenkins ($5 million)
- G Dalton Risner ($ 2.4 million)
- C Josh Myers ($4 million)
- DT Levi Onwuzurike ($6 million)
- DT Montravius Adams ($2.6 million)
- EDGE Za'Darius Smith ($11.5 million)
- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney ($10 million)
- LB Dre Greenlaw ($12.5 million)
- CB DJ Reed ($18 million)
- CB Kendall Fuller ($7.5 million)
- CB Asante Samuel Jr. ($1.8 million)
- S Justin Reid ($12.5 million)
- S Julian Blackmon ($3.7 million)
- K Eddy Pineiro ($2 million)
Regular draft + undrafted free agency
This one was easier to pull off. The NFL has given the first overall pick to the expansion team, so that's what happened here as well. The Arches would have the first pick in each round, and we could take the players who were available at that point. Sorry, Titans fans, but Cam Ward was the obvious choice. Click here for more details, and also to get access to the list of 25 undrafted free agents the Arches signed to round out the 90-man roster.
- First round, pick 1: QB Cam Ward, Miami
- Second round, pick 33: OL Jonah Savaiinaea, Arizona
- Third round, pick 65: CB Azereye'h Thomas, Florida State
- Fourth round, pick 103: WR Dont'e Thornton, Tennessee
- Fifth round, pick 139: EDGE Bradyn Swinson, LSU
- Sixth round, pick 177: T Chase Lundt, UConn
- Seventh round, pick 217: RB Damien Martinez, Miami
Finalized 90-man roster
Overall, the new team spent $279.619 million in cash. When it's offseason time, the NFL only counts the top 51 players, and then the roster is reduced to 53 for the regular season, but the sum of the cap hits of the 90 players would be $273.791 million, still below the 2025 $279.2 million salary cap. And it was purposeful.
It's really hard to compete with an expansion team from the get go, so it makes sense to roll over some money for future years.
This is the St. Louis Arches initial roster:
QB
Cam Ward, 1st pick ($8.879 million)
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons ($40 million)
Tanner McKee, Philadelphia Eagles ($1.076 million)
Donovan Smith, UDFA ($840k)
RB
Khalil Herbert, Indianapolis Colts ($1.197 million)
Damien Martinez, pick 217 ($878k)
Alexander Mattison, Miami Dolphins ($1.197 million)
Chris Brooks, Green Bay Packers ($1.03 million)
Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills ($1.975 million)
Donovan Edwards, UDFA ($840k)
WR
Josh Palmer, free agent ($11.6 million)
Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1.75 million)
Dont'e Thornton, pick 103 ($1.2 million)
Bo Melton, Green Bay Packers ($1.03 million)
Allen Lazard, New York Jets ($4.61 million)
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs ($2.052 million)
Braxton Berrios, Houston Texans ($1.67 million)
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans ($4.572 million)
Ja'Corey Brooks, UDFA ($840k)
Nick Nash, UDFA ($840k)
Jackson Meeks, UDFA ($840k)
TE
Austin Hooper, New England Patriots ($5 million)
Donald Parham Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers ($1.03 million)
Jeremy Ruckert, New York Jets ($1.605 million)
Hayden Hurst, free agent ($1.1 million)
Carter Runyon, UDFA ($840k)
Caden Prieskorn, UDFA ($840k)
T
Cam Robinson, free agent ($14 million)
Cornelius Lucas, free agent ($5.25 million)
Storm Norton, Atlanta Falcons ($1.5 million)
Matt Pryor, Philadelphia Eagles (1.275 million)
Chase Lundt, pick 177 ($911k)
Jamarco Jones, Detroit Lions ($1.1 million)
Esa Pole, UDFA ($840k)
G
Teven Jenkins, free agent ($5 million)
Jonah Savaiinaea, 33rd pick ($2.145 million)
Ben Cleveland, Baltimore Ravens ($1.03 million)
Dalton Risner, free agent ($ 2.4 million)
Cordell Volson, Cincinnati Bengals ($3.139 million)
Liam Eichenberg, Miami Dolphins ($1.337 million)
C
Josh Myers, free agent ($4 million)
Luke Wypler, Cleveland Browns ($1.074 million)
Seth McLaughlin, UDFA ($840k)
Jacob Gardner, UDFA ($840k)
DT
DJ Reader, Detroit Lions ($12.933 million)
Malcolm Roach, Denver Broncos ($4.25 million)}
Levi Onwuzurike, free agent ($6 million)
Montravius Adams, free agent ($2.6 million)
Tyler Lacy, Jacksonville Jaguars ($1.201 million)
Cam Horsley, UDFA ($840k)
Nazir Stackhouse, UDFA ($840k)
EDGE
Za'Darius Smith, free agent ($11.5 million)
Jadeveon Clowney, free agent ($10 million)
Boogie Basham, Carolina Panthers ($1.03 million)
Dylan Horton, Houston Texans ($1.23 million)
Bradyn Swinson, pick 139 ($959k)
DeMarvin Leal, Pittsburgh Steelers ($1.65 million)
Jared Ivey, UDFA ($840k)
JJ Weaver, UDFA ($840k)
LB
Dre Greenlaw, free agent ($12.5 million)
Germaine Pratt, Cincinnati Bengals ($8.183 million)
Damone Clark, Dallas Cowboys ($3.466 million)
D'Marco Jackson, New Orleans Saints ($1.179 million)
Ozzie Nicholas, UDFA ($840k)
Aaron Smith, UDFA ($840k)
CB
DJ Reed, free agent ($18 million)
Kendall Fuller, free agent ($7.5 million)
Azereye'h Thomas, pick 65 ($1.3 million)
Asante Samuel Jr., free agent ($1.8 million)
Ja'Marcus Ingram, Buffalo Bills ($1.033 million)
Josh Hayes, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1.081 million)
Corey Ballentine, Indianapolis Colts ($1.197 million)
Cam Mitchell, Cleveland Browns ($1.114 million)
Cobee Bryant, UDFA ($840k)
Isas Waxter, UDFA ($840k)
Kam Alexander, UDFA ($840k)
S
Justin Reid, free agent ($12.5 million)
Julian Blackmon, free agent ($3.7 million)
Tony Jefferson, Los Angeles Chargers ($1.055 million)
Marte Mapu, New England Patriots ($1.517 million)
Dane Belton, New York Giants ($1.296 million)
Sebastian Castro, UDFA ($840k)
De'Rickey Wright, UDFA ($840k)
Shamari Simmons, UDFA ($840k)
ST
K Eddy Pineiro, free agent ($2 million)
P Ryan Wright, Minnesota Vikings ($1.75 million)
LS Nick Moore, Baltimore Ravens ($1.25 million)
P Alex Mastromanno, UDFA ($840k)
K Graham Nicholson, UDFA ($840k)
LS Austin Brinkman, UDFA ($840k)
Final analysis
> The offense didn't get as strong as you would hope for, especially the wide receiver room, and there weren't great options in any avenue. What could have been done differently? Take a receiver instead of an offensive lineman in the second round, but the options felt like reaches at that point. Moreover, the priority was to protect Cam Ward, and the offensive line is pretty decent.
> The defense is spicy with the additions of Za'Darius Smith and Jadeveon Clowney to the edge room, plus some great interior options from the expansion draft. It was more realistic to get good defensive backs and linebackers in free agency, and most of the spending went there. Special teams had good options as well.
Which players would be unprotected in a hypothetical NFL expansion draft? | A to Z Sports NFL Newsletter
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