Five potential cap casualties for the Packers to keep a close eye on ahead of NFL free agency

The Green Bay Packers hasn't been afraid of investing in top free agency. Last season, general manager Brian Gutekunst signed safety Xavier McKinney and running back Josh Jacobs, for example, and they've been home run additions. But there's a second layer of free agency that usually isn't talked about as much, and it even brings […]

Wendell Ferreira NFL News Writer
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Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Joey Bosa during the Pro Bowl Skills Challenge at Nicholson Fieldhouse.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers hasn't been afraid of investing in top free agency. Last season, general manager Brian Gutekunst signed safety Xavier McKinney and running back Josh Jacobs, for example, and they've been home run additions.

But there's a second layer of free agency that usually isn't talked about as much, and it even brings an extra advantage: Street free agency.

A player is considered an unrestricted free agent when he has four or more accrued seasons in the NFL, and his contract expires. When a player is released from a team, he's actually a street free agent.

The difference might not matter much from a fan perspective, but it's huge for teams. And that's because street free agents do not count against the compensatory pick formula. For a draft and develop team like the Packers, this is a real factor.

So, it's always important to keep an eye on players who might eventually get released from their deals—it's a big part of director of pro personnel Richmond Williams' job.

Over the Cap made a great exercise to find out potential cap casualties ahead of free agency. Their criteria is simple. They listed players who are due a minimum of $3.75 million in cash for 2024, have a negative contract fate greater than 50%, and are within the top 100 in players with the worst OTC valuation above median starter. You can visit their website if you want to go further into the details of the process.

Realistic targets

There are some players on the list who probably won't get cut after all, because in the worst-case scenario they would still have trade value—Maxx Crosby, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans are some of the examples. So even though they are on OTC's list, I exclude them from our exercise to find potential Packers targets.

So let's discuss five cut candidates who could make sense for the Packers.

WR Davante Adams, New York Jets

Adams is obviously the most talked-about option here, because his release from the Jets seems like a matter of when, not if. He has an inflated deal, and without Aaron Rodgers, it doesn't make sense for anyone involved.

Davante reportedly wants to play in the West Coast again, but he also has expressed willingness to go back to Green Bay. At 32, he wouldn't be the elite playmaker he was in his first stint, but Adams could still be a reliable target for Jordan Love—and his ability to create separation is something the current roster doesn't have.

EDGE Joey Bosa, Los Angeles Chargers

Bosa has handled several injuries and will be 30 by Week 1, the main reasons for a regression over the past two years after being dominant for most of his NFL career. However, if he's released from his current deal, the Packers could get him on a discount.

It's a big if, yes, but if Bosa stays healthy, he could still produce at a high level alongside Rashan Gary. And there is a solid track record of edge defenders playing well into their 30s.

DT Grady Jarrett, Atlanta Falcons

The recent Super Bowl reinforced how important it is to apply pressure with four, and Jarrett has been a good pass rusher for a long time. His production is getting weaker as he approaches 32, but he could be a situational interior rusher to rotate with younger players like Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks.

EDGE Arden Key, Tennessee Titans

Key is an interesting proposition because he is a different type of defensive end than what the Packers tend to like. He's 240lbs, much lighter than what Green Bay has. But that's the charm here. Under Jeff Hafley, the Packers have lacked bendier edge rushers, and Key would bring a different element to the unit.

CB Kendall Fuller, Miami Dolphins

Cornerback is the most glaring need on the Packers roster, especially if they end up cutting Jaire Alexander. Fuller is not a star and he wouldn't be a CB1, but he had a decent season in Miami, allowing a 92.8 passer rating when targeted, an average coverage grade by PFF (62.4), and offers some versatility as a run defender and eventual blitzer. Fuller is mostly a boundary corner, but he can play in the slot as well if needed.