NFL insider dumps bucket of cold water on Malik Willis’ free agency hopes, and it may not be what the Packers wanted to hear
Willis is set to leave Green Bay in free agency.
The Green Bay Packers now they will lose backup quarterback Malik Willis in free agency. Based on Money, yes, but also on opportunity and realistic chances at becoming a starter, Willis will have a better situation elsewhere. Now, for the Packers, it’s only a matter of price.
The Packers are set to receive a compensatory pick for losing Willis in free agency, which they would get in 2027 — presuming they won’t sign a big-ticket free agent of their own to cancel out the Willis’ contract.
But ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler thinks Willis isn’t making the yearly $30 million that were rumored lately. And how much the quarterback makes impact what the Packers will get.
“Willis’ market has been a prominent topic this week. But a team offering him $30-plus million per year doesn’t appear realistic. Many front offices believe the more accurate comp is Justin Fields’ deal with the Jets last year (two years, $40 million). Could that jump up due to cap inflation and/or multiple suitors? Sure. A range of $20-25 million annually is certainly a good starting point. But Willis hitting the $30 million threshold as a player with six career starts would surprise some of the teams at the combine.” — Jeremy Fowler.
How compensatory picks work
The compensatory pick is a secretive formula run by the NFL. But it’s based on contract yearly average and snaps played in Year 1. The bigger Willis’ contract is, the better the pick the Packers get will be in 2027.
Over the Cap does a great job at projecting these comp picks, so we can have an idea of what the Packers will eventually get.
Last year, tackle Dan Moore Jr. signed with the Tennessee Titans for $21 million on yearly average and is set to generate a third-round compensatory draft pick for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The San Francisco 49ers are getting a fourth-rounder for losing Aaron Banks to the Packers for $19.25 million.
Considering cap inflation, the Packers hope that Willis sign for at least $22 million to $23 million a year in base value to secure a third-rounder. If his deal comes at the lower end of his projection, Green Bay may receive only a fourth-rounder — which is still valuable, but it’s a significant difference in available talent.
According to Fowler, the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals are the two teams with the biggest chances of signing Willis — the Cleveland Browns could be interested, but Fowler doesn’t expect them to ultimately land the quarterback.
Anyway, the Packers got Willis for a seventh-round pick in 2024. They got two seasons os excellent backup quarterback play, and now are set to receive a mid-round pick without needing to trade him away. It was a great outcome, and now it’s just a matter of how great it will be.
Green Bay Packers News
Latest free agency intel links Packers to unexpected quarterback possibility amid shifting market
Jimmy Garoppolo has played in a similar offensive system for years.
