Market projections offer fresh insight into how the Packers could keep Malik Willis beyond the 2025 season
Backup quarterback is expected to get a significant contract next offseason.
Malik Willis has completely changed the perception around him throughout his two years with the Green Bay Packers. Acquired for a seventh-round pick because nobody wanted to give up more to the Tennessee Titans, Willis became the best backup quarterback in football — and put himself in position to have another starting opportunity once he hits free agency in March.
“It’s just that he’s given us a lot of confidence, and I think it’s a credit to him,” head coach Matt LaFleur said. “I thought he played an outstanding game going into Chicago a week ago. He’s unflappable. He’s as calm as they come and is a resilient dude. I can’t say enough great things about Malik.”
Among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2025, Willis is first in adjusted EPA/play, first in success rate, first in completion percentage over expectation, and second in air yards. Stats and film show the same thing: Willis has been excellent when needed.
Market value and strategy
The Packers would love to bring Willis back, but it will be hard to convince him to stay around beyond 2025. LaFleur made the obvious more evident, saying that Jordan Love is the franchise quarterback, and the starting job isn’t up for grabs. Beyond the money, it’s a matter of opportunity.
But if Willis can’t get a starting job elsewhere, or if it’s just about the money, the Packers could realistically sign him back.
Josh Queipo, a cap analyst for Pewter Report, offered us a projection of what Willis’ contract would look like, and that’s based on his stats, age, and similar comparisons. Obviously, it takes one desperate team to change everything — especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
Contract projection scenarios
- Three-year, $31.11 million ($10.37 million per year)
- Two-year, $25.8 million ($12.9 million per year)
- One-year,$17.69 million
The simple weighted average system would indicate an average of $14.26 million per year for Willis, and short-term deals usually have higher yearly averages because the players bear the injury risk.
For comparison, Queipo used the two-year contracts that Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota signed in 2022, as well as one-year deals signed by Tyrod Taylor (2022) and Jacoby Brissett (2025). The yearly average of those four would be $12.28 million, but you could add something on top of it, considering cap inflation.
Two years ago, Gardner Minshew signed a bridge quarterback contract with the Las Vegas Raiders. It was a two-year, $27 million contract ($13.5 million yearly average), with $15 million in guarantees. Willis’ contract could be an update of that.
Backup market
Outside of players who signed starting-level extensions and got benched (Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields), Marcus Mariota is the highest-paid true backup quarterback at $8 million per year. But Daniel Jones, for example, signed a one-year, $14 million bridge deal with the Indianapolis Colts — he competed and won the starting job later, beating Anthony Richardson.
Even though the Packers don’t have an exactly comfortable cap situation, the team could certainly afford those two- and three-year scenarios for Willis, paying something around $10 million and $13 million a year — and structuring it in a way to lower the initial cap hit. That type of deal would keep Willis around in 2026 and also give the Packers the opportunity to trade the backup quarterback later.
Franchise tag is not an option
After Willis’ strong performances recently, some fans started to wonder if the Packers could apply the franchise tag on him just to trade him elsewhere. However, that’s completely off the table.
Over the Cap projects the franchise tag for quarterbacks in 2026 to be at $46 million, and the entire amount hits the cap at once — the Packers can’t afford that. Moreover, Willis, under a one-year, $46 million deal, would have small trade value, even if the acquiring team had the opportunity to reach an extension.
The Packers can simply allow Willis to walk and get a fourth-round pick (with some luck, maybe a third-rounder) compensatory selection in 2027.
Ultimately, that’s the most likely scenario — although an extension in Green Bay with reasonable numbers isn’t absurd.
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