Colts’ playoff chances take a hit, but their path to the postseason is now crystal clear after the results of Week 16
The Colts’ chances of making the AFC playoffs decreased in Week 16, but their path to the playoffs also became much clearer.
As has been the case since Week 11, the Colts got no help from the rest of the NFL in Week 16. Their chances of making it to the postseason have decreased, but their season already felt like it was on life support either way.
Instead of dwelling on their overall chances, I think it’s essential to look at the positive side of this situation for the Colts. Yes, their odds have decreased, but it has also become crystal clear what the team needs to do to earn a spot in the AFC playoff picture. So let’s dive into how the fate of the Colts’ season is down to just two steps.
Step 1: Colts win at least two of their final three, but winning out dramatically increases their odds
The first step is simple: the Colts have a 0% chance of making the playoffs unless they win at least two of their next three games. Their remaining schedule includes home games against the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as their season finale on the road against the Houston Texans.
If the team were to lose a game, it would be essential that it were against the 49ers. The Colts odds of making the playoffs with a loss to the 49ers but winning in Week 17 and 18 are roughly 24%, but drop to below 1% if that loss comes against either of the AFC South opponents. Winning out remains the team’s only favorable path to the postseason, though.
Winning each of their final three games gives the Colts roughly a 83% chance of making the playoffs. This would have the team finish 11-6 and would give each of the top two teams in the AFC South a loss. The Colts aren’t a lock for the playoffs even if this happens, though, which brings us to step two.
Step 2: One of the Chargers or Texans loses out
The teams to watch closely down the stretch are the Los Angeles Chargers, the Jaguars, and the Texans. Obviously, the Colts want to see the Jaguars and Texans lose, but the Chargers doing so would also positively impact the Colts. Indianapolis doesn’t need all three to lose out; they need one of the Chargers and Texans to do so, and the pair plays each other in Week 17.
Preferably, the Chargers can beat the Texans, which could then set up a winner-takes-all game in Week 18. If the Colts win out and the Texans lose to the Chargers, they would have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. If they were to lose to the 49ers today and the same thing happened again, they would be sitting at around a 51% chance of making it.
Winning out also gives the Colts a slim chance of still winning the division, because if they win out and both the Texans and the Jaguars lose, the Colts would be crowned the AFC South champions. That would require the Jaguars losing to the Tennessee Titans in Week 18, though, which seems very unlikely.
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