Colts: How much would a trade for Lamar Jackson actually cost?

Forget everything that you've heard about the non-exclusive franchise tag, offer sheets, and so on. On Monday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson revealed he requested a trade earlier in March. The news is significant for every quarterback-needy team, like the Indianapolis Colts, because it likely means the quarterback wants out of Baltimore. In essence, it […]

Mauricio Rodriguez Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Indianapolis Colts
Robert Scheer/IndyStar via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Forget everything that you've heard about the non-exclusive franchise tag, offer sheets, and so on. On Monday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson revealed he requested a trade earlier in March.

The news is significant for every quarterback-needy team, like the Indianapolis Colts, because it likely means the quarterback wants out of Baltimore.

In essence, it makes trading for him a much more realistic possibility since teams are less afraid of a straight-up exchange as opposed to making an offer that the Ravens can match right away no questions asked thanks to the tag.

But all of the hype surrounding the latest news about the MVP-winning quarterback begs the question: How much would the Colts have to give up to land Lamar?

Let's dive in. The best way to go about things is to look at other big-name quarterback trades in the NFL. Fortunately for us, there were a couple of them last year.

And what better place to start than the trade many AFC South fans are already significantly familiar with? That's right, let's look at what the Cleveland Browns gave up to land Deshaun Watson.

In last year's trade, here's what both parties got:

Texans received:

  • 2022 first-round pick
  • 2023 first-round pick
  • 2024 first-round pick
  • 2023 third-round pick
  • 2024 fourth-round pick

Browns received:

  • QB Deshaun Watson
  • 2024 fourth-round pick

For those of you keeping score at home, let's keep things simple: Let's cancel out the fourth-round swap and call it a trade of three first-rounders and one third-rounder.

What about Russell Wilson?

You can do something similar with the Denver Broncos trade. The Seattle Seahawks received two first-round picks and two second-round picks plus three players. There was also a "swap" involving Day 3 draft picks.

As you can see, including more than two first-round picks seems to be just the starting point. It's what teams must quickly say on the phone before the Ravens hang up and put the phone down. 

But teams will have to add more to keep the conversation alive.

So let's play general manager here. What can we put together in a trade to get Lamar to Indianapolis?

Trade proposal for Lamar Jackson

The way I see it (and for simplicity's sake), the Texans received three first-round picks and a third for Watson. And the Seahawks received two first-rounders and two second-rounders for Wilson.

If we're to follow this logic, the Colts would be looking at a trade involving more than two first-rounders.* I'd bet at least three, plus a little extra on top. Jackson, after all, is a 26-year-old quarterback with an MVP on his resume.

*Note: People far smarter than me have put together trade value charts. But we'll leave that alone for a different day and trust previous comparable trades will set the market for this one. 

He has established himself as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league even though the Ravens have been the second-lowest-spending team at wide receiver over the past three years (in offseason moves).

If I were running the Colts, below is the proposal I'd send the Ravens' front office. Keep in mind we're approaching this whole thing with an aggressive mindset that considers Baltimore is aiming to keep Jackson. 

This is different from what happened with the Texans and Watson since the relationship was beyond repair at that stage. 

As such we've got to make a strong impression:

  • First-round pick 2023 (#4)
  • First-round pick 2024 
  • First-round pick 2025 
  • Second-round pick 2023 (#35)

Before you get up in arms about the Colts hypothetically giving up too much, this is where my offer comes from: The Colts have to get at least three first-rounders in there based on the most recent similar trades.

The Houston Texans for example could get involved and they have four first-round picks to work with between 2023 and 2024. Since the Colts don't have that type of draft capital, they'd likely have to add something enticing like this year's second-rounder.

Is it a massive offer? Yes, of course. But Lamar Jackson is a proven quarterback who could change the fate of the franchise. He's worthy of a massive offer.

It's a unique opportunity and significantly different from drafting a quarterback in the first round. If Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence were on the board, I could see wanting to wait to get a rookie quarterback.

But at least in 2023, the Colts would be forced to roll the dice on a prospect with several question marks. In the best-case scenario, they'll be picking the third quarterback of the class. 

Lamar simply doesn't seem as risky. To me, any QB-needy team in the league should be trying to get him.