Don’t look now, but the Dolphins are shedding their most disrespectful label — and a favorable late-season slate suggests this shift may only be getting started
The Dolphins have gotten back to basics after an embarrassment early this season.
The Miami Dolphins‘ revival as a team has been centered around a revival of performance that would make the all-time greats of the franchise proud. The Dolphins have been controlling the line of scrimmage against their opponents as of late — a promising step towards shredding that dreaded “soft” label that the Dolphins were bestowed in 2024.
They’re not soft right now. Miami has logged the NFL’s sixth-best rushing offense since Week 6 in total rushing expected points added (EPA). They are fifth in rushing yards, fourth in yards per carry (5.1), and second in yards after contact per rush (3.50). Defensively, Miami’s run defense ranks second in total EPA since Week 6, too. All of this has come together on the heels of a catastrophic Week 5 performance against Carolina, where the Panthers ran for 220 more yards than the Dolphins did.
How sustainable is the growth?
Dolphins’ remaining schedule plays into their hand with recent performances
Miami’s renewed energy on the ground will have every opportunity to succeed over the next month. How much that translates to wins will likely come down to how much the Dolphins can reliably get from QB Tua Tagovailoa on top of it offensively — plus avoiding mistakes.
But Miami’s suddenly prolific run game has favorable matchups over the next month. Since Miami’s Week 6 glow up, at which point forward the Dolphins rank sixth in the NFL in running EPA, each of the Dolphins’ remaining opponents has struggled against the run. The Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Bucs, and Patriots all 22nd or worse in run defense (as measured by EPA). Three of the five rank in the bottom eight in yards after contact per rush conceded since Week 6. Only the Patriots rank in the top-half of the league.
The matchups when Miami is running the ball over the next month should be considered a sustainable path to success. That is, of course, provided the Dolphins execute.
Miami Dolphins success at the line of
scrimmage since Week 6
- Ranked second in the NFL in defensive rush EPA
- Ranked sixth in the NFL in offensive rush EPA
- Rank second in the NFL in yards after contact per rush (3.50)
Defensively, Miami’s run defense glow up has tougher matchups remaining. The Bengals and Buccaneers both rank in the top-12 of the league in rushing EPA on offense. The Steelers are squarely in the middle of the pack, whereas Miami’s AFC rivals in New York and New England both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in rushing EPA since Week 6.
It is interesting and worth noting, however, that Miami’s opponents since Week 6, in which period of time the Dolphins rank second in the NFL in run defense via EPA, have been tougher than the list that remains. Buffalo and Baltimore are both ranked as top-10 rushing offenses by EPA since Week 6. The Chargers and Falcons are 13th and 14th, respectively. The Commanders rank 21st, while the Browns and Saints are lumped at the bottom of the league.
So in all, Miami’s performance on both sides of the line of scrimmage in the run game are coming off of a strong eight-week performance period — with a remaining five-week stretch that should have Miami daring to believe they can be just as good. Or better.
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