It wasn’t all that long ago that the Miami Dolphins were one of the NFL’s most dangerous passing offenses. Head coach Mike McDaniel, wide receivers Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa combined for a high-octane group that produced consecutive 4,500 yard passing performances from the team in 2022 and 2023 to go along with 60 combined passing touchdowns.

Even when you had Miami backed up against the sticks, the Dolphins were a lethal group thanks to their ability to attack deeper portions of the field faster than everyone else. Those days, however, feel like eons ago. The extreme splits we’ve recently seen from Miami under Mike McDaniel’s watch with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm under these circumstances underscore what most of South Florida already knows — something is amiss. Yet another one of Tua Tagovailoa’s prior superpowers is no where to be found.

Tua Tagovailoa’s stunning fall off in one superpower has a saving grace moving forward

It wasn’t all that long ago that Tagovailoa was, metrically, one of the NFL’s best third (and fourth) down passers when backed up against the sticks. In 2022 and 2023 combined, his first two seasons playing under Mike McDaniel, Tagovailoa had the NFL’s fourth-best passer rating on pass attempts on 3rd & 4th down and eight yards to gain or longer.

Tagovailoa was completing nearly 65% of his pass attempts, posted a passer rating of 93.8 with five touchdowns, ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.2) and sixth in the NFL in first downs (37) despite missing a major chunk of the 2022 season. He was at his best in that first season under McDaniel — he posted a passer rating of 98.9 on 52 drop backs facing 3rd & 4th down and 8+ yards to go.

As of late? We’ve seen a catastrophic downturn.

He’s gone from one of the league’s best to one of the league’s worst under these circumstances — ranking 29th out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts on long & late downs since the start of the 2024 season. He’s posted a passer rating of 64.3, nearly 30 full points lower than what his performance was in the same conditions in 2022 and 2023 combined. Tagovailoa’s seven interceptions with these filters are tied with Geno Smith for the league’s most since the start of the 2024 season.

It feels at times like Miami simply…gives up once they’re extremely behind the sticks. Third and longs or getting backed up in the red zone often feel like manufactured quick-hitting targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. Not always, but often. And the numbers back it up. Nearly half of Tagovailoa’s completions this year on 3rd & 4th and 8+ have come within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.

That’s the bad news. But here’s the good news. There’s an explanation that isn’t rooted exclusively in “Tua Tagovailoa has gotten worse at playing quarterback”. Yes, Tagovailoa appears to be physically regressing. That’s a major concern. But there’s an extreme split across not only 2025 but also each of the prior three full seasons that should serve as a nice notch in the belt of one Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa’s downturn in production and lack of ball security coincides with Hill’s departure from the lineup due to a catastrophic knee injury in Week 4. More than half of Tagovailoa’s seven interceptions (5 total) since the start of the 2024 season on 3rd & 4th and 8+ have come without Tyreek Hill on the field for Miami.

The spacing Hill creates when paired with Jaylen Waddle clearly expands the margin of error for Tagovailoa’s limited arm strength and allows his anticipation to access more tight window throws by seeing them earlier. The splits, especially in 2024 and 2025, with and without Hill on the field on these obvious passing situations are far more jarring than Tagovailoa’s individual drop as of late.

The luxuries of Hill must be counterbalanced appropriately and Miami struggled to do that, as well — which makes this a complicated conversation based on the Dolphins’ recent offensive progress elsewhere. With two $28M+ wide receivers on the roster, it is increasingly difficult for the Dolphins, or any team, for that matter, to live predominantly in 22 personnel, 13 personnel, and jumbo sets that burn an eligible on a sixth offensive lineman — because you want your money on the field. Miami, since Week 5, plays in 11 personnel with three wide receivers on just 38% of their offensive downs. That ranks 30th in the league and is 15% lower than what Miami was running this season through the first four weeks.

Multiple things can be true. The Dolphins can sorely miss Hill’s impact on the game on long and late downs, but they can also be a better, more diverse unit in all other groupings without being handcuffed to the obligation to play a $30 million player on the field as much as possible. And, the cruel, complicated cherry on top is that Tagovailoa’s individual play has not been up to his prior standards this season, either.

In all likelihood, it all underscores one possible move for this football team to pursue this offseason no matter what coaching or personnel changes are made: start looking for a cost-effective alternative to Tyreek Hill to play on passing downs. A dynamic rookie receiver could warrant playing time and significant targets for the Dolphins. But because they’re not getting paid Tyreek Hill money, it simultaneously becomes easier to live in the heavy personnel groupings on early downs that have helped transform this offense into one of the league’s most effective ground games in recent weeks.

The Dolphins are facing finite resources this offseason and there’s no way to check every item off of the shopping list in one swing of the bat. So calibrate your expectations accordingly. But as Miami looks to progress into the future, keep an eye on their decisions with Tagovailoa and McDaniel this winter. Sweeping changes or, more specifically a lack thereof, could offer a clue into where Miami could covet spending a significant investment — even if it could surprise some to see wide receiver get attention.

Betting on Tyreek Hill again in 2026? That feels like a fool’s errand. Instead, Miami should be seeing to overhaul the passing game one way or another. It could come by supplanting Tagovailoa, a costly option given his guaranteed salary. It could come from adding a wide receiver. Or, alternatively, it could stem from going back to the drawing board with how this team has approached personnel and, in particular, their tight end group all together. The changes this season have come out of necessity. And Miami, along with their quarterback, are clearly ill-equipped to make the most of it — that needs to not be the case in 2026 no matter who is here calling the shots or passing the ball.

Miami Dolphins News

The Dolphins are delivering an early gift for the holidays that fans have been begging for

The Miami Dolphins return from a long layoff to retake the field today, hosting the New Orleans Saints in a matchup of below .500 teams that feel like they’re headed in different directions. The Dolphins enter today’s game out of the bye having won three of their last four. New Orleans? They’ve lose five of […]

Kyle Crabbs

Miami Dolphins News

Miami Dolphins’ general manager candidate hot board features a compelling mix of rising stars and seasoned veterans as Miami prepares for a pivotal hiring cycle

The Miami Dolphins have a bevy of talented options for their next general manager.

Kyle Crabbs