The numbers show that Minnesota Vikings’ offense is set for positive regression, and it’s easy to see how they get there
There is a lot that we can project forward positively with the Vikings.
When you look at the Minnesota Vikings offense, it’s a complete mixed bag.
They have put up 20+ points in four of five games, including a 48-point explosion in Week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals, when they were responsible for 34 of those points. There have been some interesting moments across the board, especially with head coach Kevin O’Connell‘s play calling seeing a shift.
Overall, the unit has seen a multitude of issues across the board, but many of them have the potential to show positive regression.
Minnesota Vikings’ offensive positive regression
Injury luck
The Vikings have seen a significant number of players miss time due to injuries. Just on the offensive side of the football, they have had 13 full games lost, with most of them on the offensive line.
| LT Christian Darrisaw | 2 games |
| LG Donovan Jackson | 2 games |
| QB J.J. McCarthy | 3 games |
| C Ryan Kelly | 2 games |
| RT Brian O’Neill | 1 game |
| RB Aaron Jones | 3 games |
This doesn’t include when the players missed the majority of the games in which they left, as Kelly missed the second half of two games, Darrisaw missed most of the second half last week, and O’Neill missed the final three quarters against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Against the Cleveland Browns last week, the offensive line only had one starter on the final drive, and that was right guard Will Fries. The Vikings were in great shape last year when it came to injury luck, and it was bound to take a toll on them this year, but to this extent, they have been insanely unlucky. That should improve significantly, and hopefully stay that way.
Procedural penalties
Penalties have been brutal for the Vikings this season. They have 44 so far, which is the most in the NFL. Last season, the Vikings had 110 penalties (T-16th in the NFL), and they already have 40% of that total after just five games.
If they don’t fix this, the Vikings are on pace to have 150 penalties, which would have been first in the NFL last year by 10 penalties.
The biggest factor of those 44 penalties is the procedural penalties.
- False starts: 9
- Delay of game: 4
- Illegal formation: 3
- 12 men on the field: 1
Sixteen of those are on the offense, which is a staggering amount. For context, this is what the Vikings had at each penalty all of last season.
- False starts: 25
- Delay of game: 6
- Illegal formation: 8
- 12 men on the field: 4
The good news for the Vikings is that you can attribute the majority of those to the lack of continuity on offense due to injuries, especially at center and quarterback. Having the starters return will be hugely impactful, as will the bye week, when O’Connell will work on a solution to fix this. So many of these can be fixed by just being smarter and more cohesive.
Red zone success
Going into the season, the Vikings were looking to improve in two areas: short-yardage runs and red-zone success. They still need to improve in short-yardage situations, but they have improved their red-zone conversion rate.
Last season, the Vikings went 14-3 with a lot of success on offense, but they failed in the red zone. They ranked 19th in the NFL at 55.7% (34 touchdowns in 61 trips). This year, they have improved in the red zone, albeit with a smaller sample size at 66.7% (10 touchdowns in 15 trips).
One of the biggest factors for that success is Jordan Mason, who has three touchdowns, all of which are inside the five-yard line. That is a good sign that the Vikings have found success in fixing this issue, especially on the offensive line. Theoretically, if they can get healthy, this should make things even better.
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