Vikings Free Agency Preview: Geno Smith fits exactly what Kevin O’Connell needs at quarterback
There are a lot of possible quarterback options for the Vikings, but Geno Smith might be the best of them all.
The quarterback situation for the Minnesota Vikings is far from certain right now.
We know that J.J. McCarthy is likely going to stay in the room for the Vikings, but head coach Kevin O’Connell isn’t satisfied with keeping the status quo. He is dead set on bringing in competition this offseason. Who that competition will be remains a mystery.
Over the last few weeks, the Vikings have been brought up multiple times for nearly a dozen quarterbacks. With a bevy of options at their disposal, which one is going to be the main target? The one quarterback who should be on their radar the strongest is Geno Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Minnesota Vikings should pursue Geno Smith
Let’s start with the roadblock the Vikings currently face. Right now, Smith is still under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders and has a salary cap hit of $26.5 million. The likely situation is that the Raiders cut him, something that happened last offseason when head coach Klint Kubiak just took over as the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks.
“Being that the Raiders have the first overall pick and are highly likely to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick, Kubiak could end up moving on from Smith before getting to coach him for the second consecutive season. It would save the Raiders $8 million on the salary cap with a release, but they would save all $26.5 million with a trade. Because of that, the Raiders might be willing to eat a significant amount of money to get a trade done.”
If Smith becomes available via free agency, he would likely sign a contract worth the veteran minimum with offset language becoming a factor. If he does become available like is currently projected, the film shows a quarterback O’Connell can win with.
Geno Smith has the traits Kevin O’Connell is looking for
If you look solely at the counting stats, Smith isn’t going to be the guy you want. He had 14 big-time throws and 23 turnover-worthy plays, and ranked 29th in EPA/play among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. It doesn’t look good whatsoever from a statistical standpoint, but there is important context behind those.
The Raiders were an abject disaster last season, and I’d argue Smith was far from the biggest problem.
Before the end of the season, the Raiders fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and ended up clearing out the entire staff. The stories surrounding the poor coaching had young players seeking out general manager John Spytek to watch film.
Needless to say, while Smith ended up being the cause of some of the issues on offense, he couldn’t overcome them either.
Smith is just one year removed from playing very well for the Seattle Seahawks, registering 4,320 yards and 21 touchdowns, along with 28 big-time throws to just 18 turnover-worthy plays. It’s a big deal how bad the Raiders’ situation was last season.
When you watch the film of Smith, he has two things that you love to see when it comes to playing for O’Connell: a willingness to throw it over the middle of the field, and he isn’t afraid to take shots. Between 10 and 20 yards, Smith completed 20/34 passes for 302 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s not afraid to make the tough throws, but there will be turnovers because he’s trying to find downfield shots.
The above play wasn’t a perfect read from Smith, nor was it a great throw, but the wide receiver also left him out to dry, which is a big aspect of the entire season. Smith is 35, but the arm is still live and able to threaten vertically, which is crucial for success in this offense.
If you want a quarterback who can play as Sam Darnold did in 2024, Smith might be the closest player available to him. The comparison comes down to three things:
- Willingness to attack vertically
- Live arm to threaten every blade of grass
- Plus pocket presence
It’s all over Smith’s film how well he senses pressure and maneuvers around it beautifully.
This is a big deal for the Vikings. Their quarterbacks were abysmal at maneuvering around pressure last season, but Darnold was brilliant at it. He did take 55 sacks with the Raiders last season, which is high, but some of that can be credited to the poor offensive scheme and weapons, not to mention the offensive line. He can’t be void of criticism there, but the numbers were significantly better than the year prior with the Seahawks.
Like every option for the Vikings, Smith isn’t a perfect option, nor is he going to be the savior for the Vikings. What he will provide is a level of stability to maximize the Vikings’ offense in 2026 and give McCarthy more time to develop.
Needless to say, Smith is the best option that the Vikings have.
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