NFL’s 5 riskiest contract extensions of 2025 — opportunity cost questions linger for some of biggest deals of the offseason
Which contract extensions handed out this offseason should be considered the riskiest into the future?
Trying to get out in front of the spending trends of the NFL by way of proactive contract extensions is a key part of assembling a consistent winner. There’s a bunch of variables in play, including the open market, the growth of the player potentially getting a big commitment, and the opportunity cost of other players. It’s an inexact science but one that can ultimately tip the scales for or against a team after enough of these decisions are made. Due to the unpredictable nature of it all, these long-term extensions can be high-risk propositions.
For the 2025 offseason’s round of proactive extensions, which ones carry the most risk and why?
QB Brock Purdy, $53 million AAV
I truly believe that the 49ers handled the Purdy contract well and that they’ve given themselves very reasonable exit ramps off of a big contract. But any time you guarantee $100 million in cheddar, it’s going to be considered a volatile risk. And, in the case of Purdy, it’s the opportunity cost for other players on the roster that makes this risky. Purdy is, in a vacuum, a fine NFL quarterback. In any given week he is capable of playing like a top-10 quarterback and he offers a strong conduit between Kyle Shanahan and the offense.
But how much more room for growth is there? Purdy worked so well early on because he vastly over-performed his draft position and compensation. When he’s not in that tax bracket any longer and the team’s roster reflects that, how does he rise to the occasion?
EDGE Myles Garrett, $40 million AAV
Let me be clear that there’s zero risk in retaining Myles Garrett as a football player. He’s electric. I’d consider him to be a first-ballot Hall of Fame player and I totally get why the Browns ended up offering him a then record-setting contract. The risk is not with Garrett. The risk is, like with Purdy, the opportunity cost of doing something else.
The Browns have been among the league’s leaders in cash spend for the better part of the last five years and, as a result, their veteran contracts and salary cap situation are backed into a corner. We’re starting to feel a little bit like New Orleans Saints North. What kind of trade package could the team gathered for Garrett? How could the team have cashed out here and gathered more assets for the future? Garrett, after all, will be a 30-year-old pass rusher come December. Cleveland has to be betting that their turnaround happens faster than it looks or that they’ll still have a robust market for Garrett next spring before his $29 million option bonus is due.
CB Jaycee Horn, $25 million AAV
Horn played a great season in 2024. He was physical, he was assertive in run support, and he had double-digit passes defensed. He also had a dozen penalties to his credit and played nearly half of his career snaps in a four-year career last season. It sets the stage for a highly-anticipated 2025 season. Will Horn, after finally showing his potential, clean up the little things and make another leap? Will he stay healthy for another season?
Carolina didn’t have a lot of big-money investments or talent on defense ahead of free agency this offseason, so I get it — pay the talent you do have. But it’s a risky extension given they did have the fifth-year option to play him on in 2025.
OG Trey Smith, $23.5 million AAV
Trey Smith is getting paid like a top-10 offensive tackle to be the best guard in football. He’s been a sturdy, durable talent and should be considered a godsend for what he was able to do on a Day 3 rookie contract for the Chiefs. And from Kansas City’s perspective, I get it — if you weren’t going to pay him like this, someone else would have after the year. And guard spending across the league is up through the roof.
The Chiefs are betting they’re staying ahead of the wave of interior offensive line spending with this move. In a perfect world, Smith’s value is probably a bit lower. But if the guard market continues to explode, this could end up threading the needle.
*EDGE Micah Parsons, TBD
Come on now. I know I’m cheating because Micah Parsons doesn’t have a contract extension done right now — but that’s the point. The Cowboys have spent the early portions of training camp poking the bear on this front but their track record says that when the time comes, they’ll eventually cave in and pay when they have to. They’re fully content to be reactive instead of proactive and Jerry Jones will tell you it’s because of the “risk” of signing someone too early.
These are the kinds of margins you lose in assembling a roster that can be considered a root source of your problems. It appears that will continue to be the case for Dallas.
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