Cam Ward Rookie Expectations: Caleb Williams' season undeniably good for Titans, Jayden Daniels & CJ Stroud ridiculous standards

Don’t set yourself up for disappointment with Ward

Easton Freeze — Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
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CJ Stroud Jayden Daniels Cam Ward Caleb Williams
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Things have been pretty quiet on the national front when it comes to Tennessee Titans discourse this offseason. Fans of the team have been annoyed (but not surprised) by how little run their first overall pick QB has gotten on their favorite shows and publications. I’ve continually poked fun at how there’s been more talk about how little the Titans have been covered than, well… the Titans actually being covered.

But as OTAs get underway and summer topics take hold of the media, we begin a cycle of setting expectations: for individual stars, entire teams, and yes, standout rookies. So Ward and the Titans are beginning to enter the conversation. And one area in which Titans fans have already been arguing is getting some run nationally: which recent rookie QB season is the best standard to hold Ward to in his first year?

Reasonable Rookie Expectations For Cam Ward

I saw that FS1’s “First Things First” with Nick Wright, Kevin Wildes and Chris Broussard broached this topic last week. They discussed it in the terms that I’ve seen the most so far: Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud, and Caleb Williams. And it’s clear to me that in terms of setting a reasonable expectation for Ward, there needs to be some historical context laid out that’s sorely lacking.

When I say that Cam Ward having a rookie Caleb Williams-esque season would be a definitively positive result for Tennessee, there’s all kinds of pushback. “That’s not good enough” and “that would be a disaster” is the gist of the response.

And to those people, I say you are doing one of two things: either you are unfairly attaching the extracurricular baggage of the 2024 Bears to Caleb Williams, or you need to revisit how he actually looked last year.

For starters, his statistical production alone would be a positive mark if Cam replicated it. 3500yds, 20 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions wouldn’t be a savior, breakout season by any means. But it would be a perfectly good start to his career, and significantly better QB play than the Titans have had the past two seasons. In 2024, Tennessee passers combined for 3300yds/22 TDs/21 INTs. And in 2023, they combined for just over 3000yds/14 TDs/11 INTs.

But Caleb also flashed serious potential that we saw from him in college. He looked like a player with franchise capability. He’s a big part of the reason Bears fans are so bullish heading into Year 2. Don’t let the silliness of the rest of the organization—from a pre-doomed coaching staff bungling their time with him, to the fact that the organization put a QB whose big concern was holding the ball too long behind a demonstrably terrible OL—taint the fact that Caleb had a fine first season as a developing player. If Cam can look roughly like he did, and produce similarly, it will be a perfectly acceptable outcome. Caleb Williams is a good bar to set.

Historically Unrealistic Expectations

Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels and CJ Stroud would be ridiculous bars to set. If your standard for a successful season for Cam Ward is to look like those two did, you’ve set yourself up for disappointment. You’ve also chosen to be entirely unfair to the Titans rookie QB.

To be clear, I’m not saying Cam can’t possibly have a first year akin to what Daniels or Stroud did. It’s perfectly possible, I think he is that good. But to EXPECT that? Respectfully, get a grip. We’re talking about two consecutive rookie seasons that had us buzzing about whether they were the best rookie seasons in NFL history!

That’s the bar you’re trying to hold Cam Ward to? Being the third straight rookie to put up a performance that somehow outdoes the history-writing season of the star before him? There’s nothing reasonable about that.

Hope and pray Cam can look that good, and like Daniels and Stroud, carry his previously terrible team to the playoffs immediately. It would make for a fantastic story, and I don’t think it’s impossible at all. But if he falls short of that outcome in Year 1, that doesn’t mean it was a failure of a season. Not even close.

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