There's probably only one scenario where the Tennessee Vols can host a College Football Playoff game
The new College Football Playoff rankings were revealed on Tuesday evening and the Tennessee Vol came in at No. 7. Because of automatic byes for the top four ranked conference champions, the Vols would be the No. 9 seed playing on the road against Ohio State in the first round. The final College Football Playoff rankings […]
The new College Football Playoff rankings were revealed on Tuesday evening and the Tennessee Vol came in at No. 7.
Because of automatic byes for the top four ranked conference champions, the Vols would be the No. 9 seed playing on the road against Ohio State in the first round.
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed after conference championship games are played this weekend.
Committee chairman Warde Manuel said on ESPN on Tuesday night that teams that aren't playing this weekend won't be adjusted, but teams that are playing in conference championships could move up or down.
Basically that means Tennessee can't jump Ohio State at this point. But a team that's above Tennessee that loses a conference championship game could fall below the Vols (depending on how bad the loss is).
The only games of interest this weekend for Tennessee will be the Big 10 Championship game between Oregon and Penn State and the SEC Championship game between Georgia and Texas.
If Texas beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game, it's possible that the Bulldogs could fall below Tennessee. But I wouldn't bet on that happening (unless Texas wins in blowout fashion by 30 points or something crazy). I don't think the committee will punish Georgia for losing a close game to Texas in the SEC Championship game. And I don't think they'll drop Georgia below Tennessee after the Bulldogs beat the Vols in Athens last month (head to head should matter…and not just when it helps Tennessee).
If Georgia beats Texas, it's possible, though probably unlikely, that the Longhorns could fall below Tennessee. I think a more realistic scenario, however, would be Texas falling one spot below Ohio State (which would set up a game between Tennessee and Texas in Austin). I just don't think the committee would drop Texas that far when of their both of their losses would be to Georgia.
If Penn State beats Oregon, it's extremely unlikely that the Ducks, which would then have one loss, would fall below Tennessee. So that's not a scenario that would help the Vols.
That brings us to the one scenario that I think is the Vols' best chance to host a home game.
If Oregon blows out Penn State — and I'm talking by 35 points or more — I think there would be an argument that the Nittany Lions should fall below Tennessee.
Yes, that would mean that Penn State is getting "punished" for losing the Big 10 Championship game, but that game would be an important data point for evaluating how good Penn State is — it simply can't be ignored. If Penn State shows that they don't belong on the field with Oregon, then I think it would be pretty easy to drop them below Tennessee — especially since the Nittany Lions wouldn't have any signature wins.
It's not a guarantee that Penn State would fall that far, but I think that's probably the most realistic way that Tennessee can get a home playoff game.
Ultimately, the biggest takeaway from this first 12-team playoff is that the automatic byes for conference champions aren't just silly, they're downright dumb. Rankings are rankings for a reason. If the committee thinks the ACC champion is the third best team in the nation, then so be it. But if the committee thinks the ACC champion is the 10th best team in the nation (for example), then why should they get an automatic bye?
It doesn't make any sense and it's hurting programs like Tennessee who would otherwise currently be in position to host a playoff game in the first round.
