Tennessee drops in ESPN’s College Football Playoff projection, but not as much as some might think
The Vols are still in a solid spot, but they have an obvious shortcoming to deal with.
It was a tough Saturday for the Tennessee Vols, as they had the chance to close out the Georgia Bulldogs but couldn’t do it, falling 44-41 in Knoxville.
Still, it was an extremely impressive performance on the offensive side of the ball for the Volunteers. QB Joey Aguilar showed himself to be the real deal against one of the best teams in the country, completing 24 of 36 attempts for 371 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Chris Brazzell II had a massive game with 177 receiving yards on 6 catches with 3 of them going for touchdowns.
So, what does the loss mean for the Vols in the grand scheme of things? Not too bad, it appears. The AP voters showed a sign of respect for Tennessee, keeping them at 15 despite the loss. And ESPN’s Heather Dinich also had some respect for the Vols’ efforts, as she dropped them from #7 last week, but kept them in her projected College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 3.
ESPN’s Heather Dinch has Tennessee at #10 in her post-Week 3 CFP rankings
This is what Dinich had to say about Tennessee after the Georgia game:
“Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee will not penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win, plus the loss, could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.” – via Heather Dinich, ESPN.com
It certainly was a case of glass half full and half empty for Tennessee on Saturday, and Dinich is right about how the committee likely would look at the performance against Georgia, particularly the defense. 44 points and 500+ yards to Georgia are not indicative of a playoff-caliber defense. In a way, it reminds me of what we saw with the Miami Hurricanes in 2024 – a record-breaking offense, but one of the worst-looking Power Four defenses in the country holding them back by the end of the season.
I’m not saying the Vols’ unit is at that level, but it’s undeniable that Tennessee has some true challenges this season that they’re going to have to overcome on the defensive side of the ball. The extended absences of starting CBs Rickey Gibson III and Jermod McCoy were felt heavily on Saturday against Georgia. Despite a nice start by the Vols’ young replacements, the disparity in the level of play is hard to argue with.
Tennessee also doesn’t appear to have the depth and dominant rotation among its defensive line that we saw last year. Part of that is due to injury, with Daevin Hobbs and Jaxson Moi both on the mend. But last year’s group was special. This year’s has not looked at the same level.
Fortunately, there is an eternity of time left until the College Football Playoff rankings come out. And as such, there’s time for Tim Banks to work in getting his unit as productive as possible for the heart of SEC play.
It looks like the Vols’ offense is playoff caliber, and it might need to truly be elite to get the Vols back to the playoffs in December.
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