2026 season · Week 11

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Playoff Chances

Updated November 11, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Notre Dame (8-1) has a 98% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 16% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 40% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.8. Biggest game left: vs. Boston College (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Notre Dame at 98%, a loss at 67%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: >99% · 10-2: 96% · 9-3: 16%.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds (November 11, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff98%
First-round bye40%
Reach the semifinals51%
Win the national title16%

Notre Dame playoff odds at a glance

Notre Dame (8-1) has a 98% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 16% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 40% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.8. Biggest game left: vs. Boston College (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Notre Dame at 98%, a loss at 67%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: >99% · 10-2: 96% · 9-3: 16%.

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About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated November 11, 2026 · results through Wed, Nov 11 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 6,000 times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff, wins its conference, reaches its title game, earns a first-round bye and wins the national title.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. The committee counts. Our odds factor in the CFP committee's latest Top 25 and where we project it goes next. The CFP Top 25 shows the committee's 12 in gold.
  6. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in. Switch to 24 teams to see the field under the 2027 rules.
  7. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  8. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Notre Dame's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 98% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 8-1. Chance of a first-round bye: 40%. Chance to win the national title: 16%.

What does Notre Dame need to make the playoff?

If Notre Dame finishes the regular season 11-1, it makes the playoff in more than 99% of simulated seasons; at 10-2, 96%; at 9-3, 16%. The biggest game left is vs. Boston College (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts Notre Dame at 98%, a loss at 67%. As an independent, Notre Dame is in if it finishes inside the top 12 of the final CFP ranking.

Who should Notre Dame fans root for?

No single result elsewhere moves Notre Dame's playoff odds by a full point right now — Notre Dame's own games matter most.

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