2026 season · Week 8

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Playoff Chances

Updated October 18, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Notre Dame (6-1) has an 88% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 15% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 16% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.5. Biggest game left: vs. Navy (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9) — a win puts Notre Dame at 89%, a loss at 23%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: >99% · 10-2: 85% · 9-3: 7%.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds (October 18, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff88%
First-round bye16%
Reach the semifinals40%
Win the national title15%

Notre Dame playoff odds at a glance

Notre Dame (6-1) has an 88% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 15% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 16% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.5. Biggest game left: vs. Navy (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9) — a win puts Notre Dame at 89%, a loss at 23%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: >99% · 10-2: 85% · 9-3: 7%.

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About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated October 18, 2026 · results through Week 7 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" — your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in.
  6. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Notre Dame's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

An 88% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 6-1. Chance of a first-round bye: 16%. Chance to win the national title: 15%.

What does Notre Dame need to make the playoff?

If Notre Dame finishes the regular season 11-1, it makes the playoff in more than 99% of simulated seasons; at 10-2, 85%; at 9-3, 7%. The biggest game left is vs. Navy (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9): a win puts Notre Dame at 89%, a loss at 23%. As an independent, Notre Dame is in if it finishes inside the top 12 of the final CFP ranking.

Who should Notre Dame fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Notre Dame most: North Carolina over Miami (Week 9, +4 points); Duke over Miami (Week 11, +4 points); Cincinnati over Texas Tech (Week 8, +1 point). Each number is how much that result alone raises Notre Dame's playoff odds.

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