The Kansas City Chiefs' 27-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers didn't sink their chances at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they no longer control their destiny in the AFC playoff race.

Two teams in the AFC will have to lose at least once during the final five games of the 2023 NFL season for Kansas City to regain control of the No. 1 seed. They still have a 99% chance to make the playoffs and a 96% chance to be the AFC West division winner. However, their chances at the No. 1 seed have now dipped to 25% with the Week 13 loss. 

If the season ended today, the AFC playoffs would go through Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 

If the playoffs began today. . .

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
6. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
7. Cleveland Browns (7-5)

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In the hunt. . .

1. Houston Texans (7-5)
2. Denver Broncos (6-6)
3. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)

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Likely to be eliminated. . .

1. Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
3. New York Jets (4-8)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-8)
5. New England Patriots (2-10)

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Who can help the Chiefs regain the No. 1 seed?

The best chance that the reigning Super Bowl champs have at regaining the No. 1 seed is to win out in their final five games of the season. If they do that, the Ravens and Dolphins would just need to lose a single game each for Kansas City to regain control of the No. 1 seed. 

The Chiefs don't have a head-to-head matchup with the Ravens this year. If they lose a game, Kansas City would own the tiebreaker due to a better AFC conference win record.

Ravens' remaining schedule: 

• vs. Rams
• at Jaguars
• at 49ers
• vs. Dolphins
• vs. Steelers

The Chiefs won their head-to-head matchup with the Dolphins in Week 9. If they had the same record, the Chiefs would own the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed based on that game.

Dolphins' remaining schedule:

• vs. Titans
• vs. Jets
• vs. Cowboys
• at Ravens
• vs. Bills

A tie in the Ravens-Dolphins Week 17 game would solve the issue in its entirety, but it's rare for a tie game in the NFL. There has not been a tie game so far during the 2023 NFL season, and there have only been seven tied games in the NFL since 2018. 

Chiefs' upcoming schedule:

• Dec. 10 vs. Buffalo Bills
• Dec. 17 at New England Patriots
• Dec. 25 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

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