The Titans' best possible draft pick scenario to watch for Sunday
With just one day of NFL regular season action remaining, we now have a more clear understanding of playoff and draft scenarios from around the league. So much is on the line for every team on Sunday that fans are taking rooting interests in even the most inconsequential of games. While the Tennessee Titans are now […]
With just one day of NFL regular season action remaining, we now have a more clear understanding of playoff and draft scenarios from around the league. So much is on the line for every team on Sunday that fans are taking rooting interests in even the most inconsequential of games.
While the Tennessee Titans are now eliminated from playoff contention following their 20-16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday Night, there is still a lot at stake for the Titans when it comes to their draft pick and the future of the AFC South.
Here is where things currently stand for the Titans, and the scenario that every Titans fans should be rooting for heading into Sunday.
Titans Draft Pick
Saturday night's loss guaranteed that the Titans would be drafting with either the 10th or 11th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Tennessee finished the season with a record of 7-10. Currently, seven teams in the NFL have already lost 11 or more games. That guarantees that those seven teams (HOU, CHI, DEN, ARI, IND, LAR, LVR) will have a worse record and receive a better draft pick than Tennessee regardless of what happens in their games on Sunday.
There are quite a few teams that could still finish with the same record as the Titans. The Falcons and Panthers would both move to 7-10 with a win, while the Saints, Jets, and Browns would fall to 7-10 with a loss in their games. In the event that two or more teams finish with the same record, NFL rules call for a tiebreaker to determine draft pick.
The preliminary tiebreaker when determining draft order is strength of schedule (SOS). SOS is the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. Whichever team has the weaker schedule (lower opponent winning percentage), wins the tiebreaker and receives the better draft pick. So if the Titans were to finish with the same record (7-10) as any of those teams, it would be strength of schedule that determines who drafts first.
Here are the current SOS winning percentages of teams in contention to finish 7-10:
*Tennessee Titans: 7-10 (.507)
Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 (.469)
Carolina Panthers: 6-10 (.476)
New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (.508)
Cleveland Browns: 7-9 (.522)
New York Jets, 7-9 (.535)
Both the Falcons and the Panthers are currently sitting at 6-10 with two of the lowest SOS percentages in the league. Even if both teams won their game on Sunday and finished with seven wins, it would be mathematically impossible for Tennessee to win the tiebreaker and jump either team in the draft order.
That brings the total to nine teams that are guaranteed a better draft pick than the Titans.
On the flip side of things, the Browns and Jets have played two of the harder schedules in the league. They each have seven wins already, and regardless of outcome, the Titans would get the tiebreaker and have a better draft pick than both of these teams. Titans fans, you can take them off of your radar.
Then there's the New Orleans Saints, who currently have seven wins and hold an SOS percentage almost identical to the Titans. Whether the Titans pick 10th or 11th in the draft will come down to the Saints and their game with the Panthers on Sunday.
A Saints victory over Carolina would bring their season record to 8-9 and solidify Tennessee's place in the top ten. That's the easiest solution that Titans fans should root for, because if the Panthers win and both teams finish 7-10, the Titans could be at risk of losing the tiebreaker with New Orleans and falling out of the 10th pick.
Other games from around the league would then factor into the final SOS record for both the Saints and Titans, and the lower percentage would win out. So let's keep it simple.
Titans fans need to double as Saints fans on Sunday.
AFC South Drama
While we're going over where Titans fans should place their allegiance for Sunday games, it's important to discuss the potential fallout of the (hilariously irrelevant) Colts and Texans game on Sunday.
Two teams that have had completely forgettable and miserable seasons will square off in Week 18 with both teams…potentially trying to lose. Two teams that kicked off their season with a tie against one another will conclude their season vying for a loss to bolster their draft position.
Houston (2-13-1) is currently in position for the number one overall pick. That would, in theory, set them up to have their pick of the litter and draft their quarterback of the future. All they have to do is lose on Sunday.
Should the Texans actually manage to win, and the Chicago Bears lose to the Vikings (almost a guarantee with Nathan Peterman starting), Chicago would jump Houston and receive the first pick in the 2023 draft. Better yet, the Bears are not looking to draft a quarterback, and could potentially trade the pick to any team looking to make a move on a QB. That could cause some real problems for the Texans' future,.
On the other side of things, Indianapolis (4-11-1) is hoping to get in on the high-end draft picks. The Colts currently have the fifth pick in 2023, but a loss to Houston could push them into the top three and give them a better chance at landing a franchise QB of their own.
Titans fans everywhere should cheer on the Texans with hopes that the Bears land the number one pick. That's the most likely scenario where the elite quarterback prospects stay out of the AFC South.
Less than 24 hours from now, we will have all the answers.