Titans' recent play puts AFC South title in legitimate danger

Just a few weeks ago, the Tennessee Titans were sitting at 7-3 after a primetime win in Green Bay, and looking at not only running away as division champions, but contending for one of the top spots in the AFC playoff picture. After an ugly stretch with three consecutive losses, Tennessee is now having to […]

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Dec 11, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) drops back to pass during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 11, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) drops back to pass during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Just a few weeks ago, the Tennessee Titans were sitting at 7-3 after a primetime win in Green Bay, and looking at not only running away as division champions, but contending for one of the top spots in the AFC playoff picture.

After an ugly stretch with three consecutive losses, Tennessee is now having to look in the rearview mirror and hope they can manage to limp into the playoffs.

Make no mistake about it, the Jacksonville Jaguars are dangerous and the AFC South is far from over.

Remaining Schedule

While the Indianapolis Colts are not mathematically eliminated from the conversation yet, the AFC South race is likely going to come down to the Titans and Jaguars, and when looking at the remaining schedules of both squads, it could very well come down to the final game of the season.

Tennessee and Jacksonville each have four games remaining, and they have three of them in common. The Titans will play the Chargers (road), Texans (home), Cowboys (home), and Jaguars (road) to finish the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will play the Cowboys (home), Jets (road), Texans (road), and Titans (home).

At face value, the Titans (7-6) currently hold a two game lead over the Jaguars (5-8) in the division with just four to play. But because Jacksonville beat the Titans on Sunday, they are now in a position to take the tiebreaker with another head-to-head win in Week 18. If Tennessee and Jacksonville are within one game of each other going into the final week, that January 8th matchup will be for the division.

But what would need to happen for it to get there?

Potential Scenarios

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) hugs Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. Nfl Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) hugs Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn.Nfl Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans

Unfortunately, the scenario I just described might be more likely than Titans fans want to admit. Assuming you give both teams a win over Houston down the stretch, it may just take one upset victory for the Jags to control their own destiny.

Let's go according to Las Vegas. The Titans opened on BetMGM as three (+3) point underdogs next week in Los Angeles. If Tennessee loses to the Chargers, defeats the Texans at home, and presumably loses to a 10-3 Cowboys team, that would have them at 8-8 entering the final game of their season.

The Jaguars would then need to beat Houston (which is likely), and pull an upset over either the Cowboys or Jets. That would leave Jacksonville at 7-9 entering Week 18 with a chance to play the Titans at home and steal the division.

I wouldn't say it's time to hit the panic button, but the late blooming of Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense has to be at least a little bit concerning. Lawrence has proven over the past few weeks that he has taken the next step to being an offensive centerpiece, and it's not hard to imagine him having a stellar day and beating the Jets (who are currently playing with an injured backup quarterback).

Tennessee may turn things around, get a road win over the Chargers, and put all of this talk to bed. But as of now, it wouldn't surprise me to see Week 18 become a battle for a spot in the playoffs.

That's a really sad reality considering where things were just a few weeks ago, but when a team plays as poorly as the Titans have over the past three week, it's a conversation that needs to take place.

Nothing is guaranteed.

Image via Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports