National reporter is wrong for criticizing this Titans free agent signing
Pro Football Focus names the best and worst move of free agency for the Tennessee Titans.
A recent article from Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus highlighted the best and worst moves in free agency for every NFL team, but his biggest criticism for the Tennessee Titans is a bit unfair.
Spielberger labeled LT Andre Dillard as his "least favorite" move by the Titans in free agency, specifically pointing to the "value on his contract" as his problem with the signing.
Dillard signed a three-year, $29 million contract with the Titans this offseason.
Prior to joining the Titans, Dillard was a first round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles and had spent most of his time in the league as a backup tackle. When Dillard got hurt and missed the entire 2020 season, Jordan Mailata took over as the starter in Philly and never looked back.
Landing with the Titans, who have a big need on their offensive line, Dillard now has the opportunity to start on an offensive line and reach his full first round potential. Here's what Spielberger wrote in his article about Dillard's new deal with Tennessee:
Dillard signed with the Titans after serving in a backup role with the Eagles despite his first-round draft status. Not being able to crack the lineup for another team would’ve been a much bigger red flag, and he offers guard-tackle flexibility that could contribute to his value.
On 340 snaps at left tackle in 2021, Dillard earned a 71.7 pass-blocking grade, which is the best indicator we have from his NFL experience of the player Tennessee believed it was signing. We’ll see if he can play at a high level as a full-time starter, but it’s fair to wonder if he signs a deal even close to the three-year, $29 million pact he received without his first-round pedigree. That said, there are only $13 million in total guarantees in the deal with just $7.5 million in Year 1 cash flow.
The Titans obviously believe that Dillard can be a high-level starter for them at left tackle in 2023, but my main issue with Spielberger's concern is that the guaranteed money on Dillard's contract actually makes the signing fairly low risk for Tennessee.
Sure, $29 million might be more than Dillard proves to be worth, but as Spielberger explained, less than half of the contract is fully guaranteed, and there is just $7.5 million in Year 1 cash flow with a cap hit just over $2.5 million in 2023. That alone makes the deal worth it.
Even if Dillard were to play out the entire three-year contract with the Titans and Tennessee was to pay him $29 million over the next three seasons, a contract AAV of $9.66 million would currently rank 18th among NFL left tackles. Tennessee is playing Dillard slightly below average money for a starter at his position, and if he is to see the full three years on his deal, there's a good chance that it's because his production is well worth it.
If the Titans want out of the contract following the 2024 season, none of Dillard's 2025 salary comes guaranteed. Tennessee would be able to get out of the contract paying right at $17 million over two years. Considering what quality left tackles make in today's NFL, that's not a bad deal at all.
Signing Dillard actually fits in perfectly with what the Titans are trying to do this season. He's an athletic, talented player with a first-round pedigree that is in need of opportunity. He gets that chance with the Titans, who could have a high-quality tackle that doesn't break the bank in a year where they are up against the salary cap but still hoping to retool.
Given the limited risk Ran Carthon and the Titans are taking on in this deal, I have a hard time criticizing the move. Spielberger may not be in love with Dillard as a player, but the $29 million contract valuation isn't an accurate reflection what he'll be paid if things don't work out.
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