The Tennessee Vols probably need to win 10 regular season games in 2024 to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

Nine wins might get it done, but that will depend on how the rest of the season plays out for other teams that are in contention for a playoff spot. 

With tough games against Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia on the schedule, there's very little room for error for the Vols. Essentially, they can't afford to lose a game that they aren't supposed to lose. 

And there are a couple of games on the schedule that could be unexpectedly tricky for Tennessee. 

Two games, specifically, stand out. 

First, there's the game in Charlotte on September 7 against NC State. 

It feels like a lot of fans just assume that game will be a win for the Vols. And while I think Tennessee will ultimately end up beating the Wolfpack, it's not like it's an "automatic win" for the Volunteers. 

NC State will likely be ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 poll ahead of the 2024 season. They might even be a top 20 team. The Wolfpack added former Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall to their roster this offseason, giving them a veteran signal caller with a proven track record of success (McCall is a three-time Sun Belt player of the year). 

I think Tennessee is the more talented team and I think edge rusher James Pearce can help limit McCall's effectiveness. But NC State is a capable team. If the Vols don't go into that game fully focused and prepared (especially with a big game against Oklahoma looming two weeks later), it's a game that could go south quickly for them. 

The other "trap game" on Tennessee's schedule comes later in the year when the Vols host Mississippi State on November 9. 

Again, this is a game that most have penciled in as a win for the Vols. And on paper, it definitely should be a win for Tennessee — especially since Mississippi State will a have a first year head coach at the helm this fall. 

But it's that first year head coach — former Oklahoma Sooners offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby — that's the cause for concern in this matchup. 

Lebby served as an assistant under Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel for two seasons at UCF. The first year Mississippi State head coach, who is the son-in-law of former Baylor head coach Art Briles, runs the same offense as Heupel, too. 

That means that Lebby knows all the secrets, he knows the most effective way to defend it, and he knows the inner-workings of Heupel's process. 

The same obviously applies to Heupel and the Vols when it comes to Lebby and Mississippi State. And the fact that Tennessee has the talent advantage should mean a Vols win regardless of how well Lebby's team can defend Heupel's offense. But if Tennessee's offense has a surprise "off night" against the Bulldogs, then this is a game that could get away from the Vols. 

I'm not predicting that Tennessee will lose either of these games. I think they end up winning both games. But neither matchup is one that the Vols can sleepwalk through and get a win. 

Tennessee player who got hit with a dose reality by Vols DL coach Rodney Garner last summer no longer with team

Former four-star recruit