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Too-early look at NFL playoff seeds: Who stays, and who goes?

Seven weeks into the regular season, the potential NFL playoff field is beginning to shape up. Of course, it’ll likely look much different than it does right now, but examining the seeds today gives us a good idea of which teams will be competing for the 14 available playoff spots.

Here’s a look at the current playoff picture — how many of these teams stay in the mix, and which ones are pretenders?

AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts (6-1), AFC South winner
2. New England Patriots (5-2), AFC East winner
3. Denver Broncos (5-2), AFC West winner
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2), AFC North winner
5. Buffalo Bills (4-2)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)

Bubble teams: Kansas City Chiefs (4-3), Cincinnati Bengals (3-4), Houston Texans (2-4)

Looking bleak: Las Vegas Raiders (2-5), Cleveland Browns (2-5), Baltimore Ravens (1-5), Miami Dolphins (1-6), Tennessee Titans (1-6), New York Jets (0-7)

Analysis: The Colts, Pats, Broncos and Steelers in the top spots? What is this, 2014? If you asked literally anyone if they would have expected to see Indy in the No. 1 spot this far into the season, they would have laughed and called it nonsense. Yet, here the Colts are, the only one-loss team in the AFC, laughing their way to the top seed and a potential first-round bye.

If I were to guess, I’d say the Colts win their division, which is a weak one — the Jags are the biggest question mark, and Indy still has them twice on their schedule. The Pats and Bills are neck and neck and still have a game against each other, so it’s tough to say which one will come out on top (my guess is the Bills ultimately do, especially if they can make a noteworthy trade at the deadline). The Broncos and Chiefs are in a similar boat — K.C. is breathing down Denver’s neck, and they still have two games against each other coming up. With as good as the Chiefs are playing, plus the return of receiver Rashee Rice, I’d guess that the Chiefs take over the top spot in the AFC West.

Before this week, I would have said the Steelers have the AFC North in the bag. The Browns aren’t going anywhere, Baltimore has been hit badly with the injury bug, and the Bengals are relying on quarterback Joe Flacco to save their squad. But Flacco just beat Pittsburgh this past weekend! Can he keep up that quality work consistently? If so, the Bengals can compete — they’re not very far behind.

The only squad in the “looking bleak” category that could crawl out, to me, is the Ravens. If QB Lamar Jackson returns in Week 8, they could go on a run against what looks like a soft schedule over the next five weeks. As for the rest of the “looking bleak” teams? Well, it’s time to start doing some draft research.

Most likely field*: Bills, Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Jags, Pats, Steelers

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (4-1-1), NFC North winner
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-2), NFC West winner
3. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2), NFC East winner
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2), NFC South winner
5. Detroit Lions (5-2)
6. Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
7. Los Angeles Rams (5-2)

Bubble teams: Chicago Bears (4-2), Carolina Panthers (4-3), Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1), Atlanta Falcons (3-3), Minnesota Vikings (3-3), Washington Commanders (3-4)

Looking bleak: Arizona Cardinals (2-5), New York Giants (2-5), New Orleans Saints (1-6)

Analysis: The fact that there are only three teams in the NFC’s “looking bleak” list compared to the AFC’s six shows just how top-heavy the AFC is. The NFC looks super strong right now — seven teams with five or more wins, while the AFC only has three of those. It’s difficult to say which team is the “best” in the NFC — each week gives us a different answer to that question.

The Packers remain on top, for now, but they certainly don’t have a stranglehold on their division. The Lions are creeping up after a rebound victory Monday night, and even the Bears and Vikings could get hot and compete. The same goes for the Niners, who are tied at 5-2 with the Seahawks and Rams — any of those squads could win the NFC West, though the fact that the 49ers have stayed on top with backups running their offense shows that they’re probably the best (or at least the most deep) team in the NFC.

Philly has the strongest hold on their division compared to the other division leaders. That’ll probably stick, but the Cowboys have WR CeeDee Lamb rejoining what was already one of the NFL’s best offenses, so don’t sleep on them. The Bucs seem to have a good grasp of the NFC South despite losing Monday night — it’s the injuries that are their biggest enemy. But how about the 4-3 Panthers, just one game behind Tampa in the South? The Bryce Young injury hurts, but if they keep rolling, they could actually sneak into the playoffs as a division winner rather than as a wild card.

Most likely field*: 49ers, Bucs, Eagles, Lions, Packers, Rams, Seahawks

*Records and schedules make it difficult to predict seeding, so these predictions are in alphabetical order instead of seeding order.

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