2026 season · Week 9

Washington Commanders Playoff Chances

Updated Tue, Nov 3 · Based on 10,000 simulated seasons

The Washington Commanders (2-4-1) have a 12% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs in the A to Z Sports model, a 11% chance to win the NFC East and less than a 1% chance to win Super Bowl LXI. They are projected to finish with 6.4 wins. By final record: 6-10-1 (1%), 5-11-1 (less than 1%), 7-9-1 (10%). In the simulations, the Commanders pick 10th on average in the 2027 NFL Draft (by record, before pick trades). Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

Washington Commanders odds (Tue, Nov 3)
Make the playoffs12%
Win the NFC East11%
No. 1 seed in the NFC<1%
Reach Super Bowl LXI1%
Win Super Bowl LXI<1%

Commanders playoff odds at a glance

The Washington Commanders (2-4-1) have a 12% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs in the A to Z Sports model, a 11% chance to win the NFC East and less than a 1% chance to win Super Bowl LXI. They are projected to finish with 6.4 wins. By final record: 6-10-1 (1%), 5-11-1 (less than 1%), 7-9-1 (10%). In the simulations, the Commanders pick 10th on average in the 2027 NFL Draft (by record, before pick trades). Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

More NFC East: NFC East race · Cowboys · Giants · Eagles · All 32 teams

About the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor: every team's path to the 2026 NFL playoffs. It gives all 32 teams their odds to make the playoffs, win their division, earn the No. 1 seed and win Super Bowl LXI, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with the NFL's official tiebreakers and playoff format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Updated Tue, Nov 3 with results through Week 8. Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

How to use the NFL Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, earns the No. 1 seed and wins the Super Bowl.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make it the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update across the league.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim week" or "Sim the season" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Watch the standings move. Every standing uses the NFL's official tiebreakers: head-to-head, division and conference record, common games, strength of victory and the rest.
  5. Pick the playoffs. See the Bracket shows the projected 14-team field. Tap any team to send it through; the bracket reseeds after the Wild Card round, just like the real one.
  6. Go deeper. Division pages show each race and how its ties get broken. Team pages show what your team needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the playoff picture or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are the Commanders' chances to make the playoffs?

A 12% chance. That is the share of 10,000 simulated seasons in which the Washington Commanders (2-4-1) make the 14-team 2026 NFL playoffs, from the A to Z Sports model with the NFL's official tiebreakers. Updated Tue, Nov 3.

Can the Commanders win the NFC East?

The Commanders win the NFC East in 11% of simulations and earn the NFC No. 1 seed and its first-round bye in less than 1%.

What record do the Commanders need to make the playoffs?

In the simulations the Commanders make the playoffs more than 99% of the time at 10-6-1. Odds for every likely final record are on the Commanders page.

What are the Commanders' Super Bowl odds?

The A to Z Sports model gives the Washington Commanders less than a 1% chance to win Super Bowl LXI and a 1% chance to reach it.

What do the Commanders need to make the playoffs?

The Commanders page lists every remaining game with the Commanders' playoff odds if they win or lose it, plus the other games around the league that help them most. Tap any result to see how the odds change.

Where would the Commanders pick in the 2027 NFL Draft?

By record, the Commanders pick 10th on average in the simulations, with a 25% chance at a top-5 pick and a 1% chance at No. 1. This is draft position by record before any pick trades.

Note: A to Z Media, LLC does not own any of the team, league or event logos depicted within this site. All sports logos contained within this site are properties of their respective leagues, teams, ownership groups and/or organizations.

If you join the newsletter, you hereby acknowledge and agree to receive email communications from A to Z Sports. You will have the option to unsubscribe at any time through a link provided in each correspondence. Review our Privacy Policy for more details.

A to Z Sports is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or otherwise associated with the National Football League, NFL Properties LLC, any NFL member club, the NFL Players Association, NFL Players Inc., or any player, coach, or other individual. All team names, nicknames, logos, uniforms, and other marks are the property of their respective owners and are used for informational and identification purposes only.

Playoff odds, projected standings, seeds, brackets and draft positions are estimates from A to Z Sports computer simulations, not predictions of fact and not official NFL standings, and are provided for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not betting advice. Statistical information is believed accurate but is provided without warranty. Schedule, results and betting lines from nflverse.

Privacy PolicyTerms and ConditionsCookie Policy