How Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes helped 'break' NFL Football
When someone as special as Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes enters the picture, the entire NFL has to react quickly. That's why the two-time MVP's herculean 2018 campaign led to a massive change in how defenses operate at the highest level. After all, football is widely described by coaches and historians as a decades-long […]
When someone as special as Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes enters the picture, the entire NFL has to react quickly. That's why the two-time MVP's herculean 2018 campaign led to a massive change in how defenses operate at the highest level.
After all, football is widely described by coaches and historians as a decades-long game of chess for a reason. Offenses come up with the best way to blow defenses out of the water and defenses cook up a recipe to take it away. Rinse and repeat.
Sometimes, it's an innovative scheme and sometimes it's a player doing things we'd never seen before. In Mahomes' first season as a starter, a little bit of both was enough to "break football," as coach Cody Alexander put it on Twitter.
Patrick Mahomes' MVP season preceded the rise of quarters
Lately, most NFL defenses have used a heavy dose of quarters coverage. While different coaches will give you different definitions, think mostly about Cover 4 and Cover 2 varieties where opponents attempt to take the opponents' deep passing game away.
This forces offenses to be patient. Instead of going over the top of the defense, teams have to find a way to attack underneath and pound the rock.
Coach Cody Alexander, the author of several insightful books and the Match Quarters substack, put together a chart showing how often NFL teams have run quarters since 2014. In it, he claims "2018 is the year that 'broke' football."
In 2018, only four teams ran quarters coverage in over 10% of the plays. One year later in 2019, that number had jumped to 16 teams in the league. In 2022, that number sat at 23 NFL teams.
The massive shift was partly a result of Mahomes' otherworldly 50-touchdown season with the Chiefs. After all, Andy Reid's offense was a historic one even beyond the scoring plays.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the 2018 Chiefs finished with the fifth-best offense in NFL history.
The Chiefs stand out among the best offenses of all-time for their balance, first in passing and fourth in rushing. Note also that the Chiefs put up those incredible offensive numbers against a harder-than-average schedule of opposing defenses, including two top-ten defenses in their division.
– Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders (2018)
After seeing what Mahomes was capable of and foreseeing how teams around the league would prioritize early-down passing, it's fair to assume NFL defensive coordinators figured out they needed to run much more quarters coverage if they wanted to survive the rise of explosive offenses.
Other relevant factors around the NFL
As much as we love Mahomes, it's only fair to clear up one thing: the Chiefs quarterback wasn't the only one that led to such a seismic shift in the league.
Asked about other contributing factors on Twitter, Alexander pointed out several things: "(Sean) McVay / (Kyle) Shanahan, more mobile QBs, and the accepted use of RPOs."
Now, the question becomes if the tides are ready to turn again across the NFL. Many expect 2023 to be the year in which the running game makes its big comeback. The good news is the Chiefs should be ready for it. Even last season, they showed they can be as consistent in the short game and running the football.
With Patrick Mahomes under center and Andy Reid on the headset, defensive coordinators are unlikely to find the right answer anytime soon.
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Featured image via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
