So now that George Pickens was franchise tagged by the Dallas Cowboys, what’s next?

The truth is we don’t know. Scenarios range from a long-term deal getting done to him playing elsewhere in 2026, or even missing playing time. Some scenarios are clearly likelier than other, though, and that’s why we’re here today.

Below are all the possible Pickens scenarios ahead of the 2026 NFL season, ranked from the likeliest to the least likely.

1. Pickens plays on the tag

At the NFL Scouting Combine, the Cowboys front office was unapologetic for using the tag on Pickens. But most importantly, they didn’t show a single ounce of urgency to get a deal done, indicating confidence on Pickens playing on the tag.

Stephen Jones even alluded to their ability to get a deal done with quarterback Dak Prescott even after he played on the tag in 2020. While I expect them to make a push to get Pickens signed, dragging things out has been their M.O. for a while.

July 15 is the deadline for them to strike a multi-year contract extension. I’m not sure they’ll beat it. History tells us Dallas is comfortable with standout players playing under the tag (Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz, DeMarcus Lawrence are other examples).

2. Long-term contract gets done

All of the above being said, a long-term deal is feasible here.

Yes, Pickens is represented by David Mulugheta, the same agent behind the Micah Parsons trade. Yes, signing Pickens will require one of the largest WR contracts in the game. Yes, the Cowboys aren’t exactly showing they’re going to do things differently.

But this is unlikely to get personal, as the Parsons negotiations did. And the Cowboys clearly like Pickens as a player and as an individual, which carries a lot of weight considering his controversial history at Pittsburgh.

The Cowboys know they can have an elite offense as long as they keep Pickens, and a deal makes sense for all parties. Making the numbers work is not easy, but also not impossible.

3. Cowboys match someone else’s offer

Since the Cowboys used the non-exclusive franchise tag on Pickens, he will be free to negotiate with other teams starting in March 9 at 4:00 p.m. ET just as any other unrestricted free agent.

If he agrees to a deal, the Cowboys will hold the right of first refusal to match said offer and sign Pickens to it. It’s entirely possible part of the Cowboys’ thinking when using the non-exclusive tag was for the market to dictate Pickens’ price.

Some believe many teams will be turned off by character concerns surrounding Pickens, which weren’t a major issue in Dallas but persisted in small doses. The Cowboys have admitted to the wide receiver being late for some meetings, and he was disciplined for missing curfew in Las Vegas last November.

4. Standard trade

This is where we get into unlikely scenarios, if you ask me.

If the Cowboys and Mulugheta realize they just won’t get on the same page, and another team comes in with an enticing contract offer for Pickens, could Dallas consider a trade?

It’s hard for me to say no following the Parsons trade. It could make sense. But I think the Cowboys genuinely like Pickens. And they may even prefer to have him for one more year before shipping him away.

Does Jerry Jones want to be the owner that trades away Parsons and Pickens in back-to-back years? I’m betting no.

5. Pickens misses regular season games

If a deal isn’t struck by July 15, Pickens may miss training camp as protest. But it could get uglier than hat, at least in theory. Say the negotiations go south and get personal like they did with Parsons last year, Pickens could decide to miss games.

However, this is one of the unlikeliest scenarios on the list for a reason.

I don’t think this happens because Pickens would stand to lose a lot.

Financially, he would be losing more than one million dollars per game missed. On top of that, it would negatively affect how teams perceive him, which is already an issue for him.

6. Cowboys get two first-round picks for Pickens

Let’s assume the Cowboys decide they’re not trading Pickens no matter what. Teams are still allowed to negotiate with Pickens, and should the Cowboys decide not to match another team’s offer like their non-exclusive tag allows them to, the new team would sign him.

But they’d have to give up two first-round picks in return, per NFL rules.

As good and promising as Pickens was in 2025, no one in the league is doing that. Other than for a quarterback or an edge rusher, it’s almost impossible to give up that kind of compensation while also needing to agree to a long-term extension.

This earns the “most improbable” title but I’d call it impossible.

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