Predicting how the Colts’ ongoing negotiations will play out between Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce ahead of free agency

Will the Colts do what is necessary to keep both Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce?

Destin Adams — NFL News Writer
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Colts QB Daniel Jones
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The hourglass is quickly ticking away on the Indianapolis Colts as they look to extend both Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce ahead of either hitting the open market to become free agents.

Teams have until 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, March 3, to place one of the three tags at their disposal. (exclusive/non-exclusive franchise tag and the transition tag) That makes it imperative that the Colts can extend one of Jones or Pierce ahead of the deadline so they can then use a tag on the other to keep either from hitting unrestricted free agency, where other teams can start bidding wars.

With that deadline quickly approaching, I decided to share my thoughts on how I think these high-pressure situations end up playing out for the Colts and their top in-house free agents.

Daniel Jones: Extended

There is a lot of smoke out there that the Colts could use the transition tag on Jones. It makes sense why that would be an option. The QB transition tag comes in at just under $38 million, which is six million less than this year’s franchise tag for a QB.

It would also allow them to match any offer Jones may want to accept on the open market to keep him around. It would also allow the team a chance for Jones to be back on a one-year deal, which would prevent them from guaranteeing much of their future to the QB who is coming off a torn right Achilles tendon.

Ultimately, though, I think this path is too risky, as the Colts can’t allow Pierce to become an unrestricted free agent. I think the Colts and Jones both know that, at the end of the day, they are each other’s best option, and a long-term extension gets done ahead of tomorrow’s deadline.

I think a three-year deal with heavy guarantees inside the first two years is probably the framework for a contract. I also think a little north of what the Seattle Seahawks gave Sam Darnold last year, which was a 3-year $100 million contract, is likely to be the evaluation.

Contract prediction: 3-year, $105 million that can become $115 with incentives

Alec Pierce: Franchise tag and then extended

Last but not least is Pierce, who I believe is the team’s top WR and the most important free agent. Pierce is an ascending star WR who has now led the league in yards per catch in each of the last two years and is coming off his first 1,000-yard season.

Going forward, he needs to receive a much larger target share and be treated as the team’s true WR1. If they get a new deal done for him, I think a lot of that will come naturally with the high price tag he’s likely to demand.

I do think using the non-exclusive franchise tag on Pierce is the best play the Colts can take if an extension isn’t agreed to ahead of Tuesday at 4 p.m. That makes it so that the Colts can match any offer Pierce agrees to on the market, and if they choose to let him go, they get two first-round picks in return.

It’s the same process the team took with Michael Pittman Jr. two offseasons ago, and they’d have the same plan here. Place the tag now with the plan to extend him in the future. I doubt Pierce would even have to play on the tag, as the Colts would work hard to get an extension done ahead of training camp. I think his deal will be something like a 4-year, $110 million contract.

Contract prediction: Non-exclusive franchise tag placed, and eventually a 4-year, $110 million

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