AFC Playoff Picture: Chiefs fall further behind in race for No. 1 seed

A second consecutive loss for the Kansas City Chiefs has severely damaged their chances at the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference.  The Chiefs have never played a road playoff game during the Patrick Mahomes era, but it's looking more like a possibility after their brutal 20-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week […]

Charles Goldman — NFL Managing Editor
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Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A second consecutive loss for the Kansas City Chiefs has severely damaged their chances at the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference. 

The Chiefs have never played a road playoff game during the Patrick Mahomes era, but it's looking more like a possibility after their brutal 20-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. They still have a 99% chance to make the playoffs and a 92% chance to win the AFC West division. However, the loss to the Bills brought their No. 1 seed chances down from 25% to 20%. They'll need quite a bit of help in the final four weeks of the season to regain control of the AFC's top spot. 

If the season ended today, the AFC playoffs would go through M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. 

If the playoffs began today. . .

  1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
  2. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
  5. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
  7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

In the hunt. . .

  1. Houston Texans (7-6)
  2. Denver Broncos (7-6)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
  4. Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Likely to be eliminated. . .

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
  3. New York Jets (5-8)
  4. Tennessee Titans (5-8)

Eliminated. . .

  1. New England Patriots (3-10)

What does the route to the No. 1 seed look like?

The Chiefs have fallen two games behind the Baltimore Ravens for the No. 1 seed. If they both finish with the same record, the Chiefs would still hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens because they've only lost two AFC conference games, compared to Baltimore's three losses to AFC opponents. 

To secure the No. 1 seed, Kansas City must take care of business in the final four weeks of the 2023 NFL season. That might seem far-fetched after the team dropped two winnable games, but the Chiefs will face a backup quarterback in each of their final four weeks of the 2023 NFL season (Bailey Zappe, Aidan O'Connell, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick). 

Beyond that, the Ravens have two extremely tough games left on their schedule against the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins. If they lose those two games, it will put Kansas City in a position to regain control of the AFC's No. 1 seed. Miami would also need to lose another game. They lost to the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. They also have a tough-looking game on their schedule in the Dallas Cowboys.  

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Chiefs could get back to the No. 1 seed, but it's mostly out of their hands. All they can do is do their part in the final four weeks and hope for the best. 

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