Chiefs still given 98 percent chance of making playoffs after Week 16 loss

The Kansas City Chiefs backslid with a disappointing Christmas Day loss in Week 16 against the Las Vegas Raiders. They had a chance to wrap up the AFC West division at home on national television, but instead, all of the team's flaws were on display for the world to see. Things might seem incredibly bleak with […]

Charles Goldman — NFL Managing Editor
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The Kansas City Chiefs backslid with a disappointing Christmas Day loss in Week 16 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

They had a chance to wrap up the AFC West division at home on national television, but instead, all of the team's flaws were on display for the world to see. Things might seem incredibly bleak with the AFC's No. 1 seed now out of reach and the team coming apart on offense, but they're still in an excellent position to reach the postseason with two games left to go in the regular season. 

They're at very minor risk of missing the playoffs altogether and they still have over a 90% chance of winning the AFC West for the eighth consecutive season.

If the playoffs began today. . .

  1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
  2. Miami Dolphins (11-4)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
  5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
  6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
  7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)

In the hunt. . .

  1. Houston Texans (8-7)
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
  4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)

Likely to be eliminated. . .

  1. Denver Broncos (7-8)

Eliminated. . .

  1. New England Patriots (4-11)
  2. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
  3. Tennessee Titans (5-10)
  4. New York Jets (6-9)

The outlook isn't as bleak as some are making it out to be

One of the most common responses on my postgame press conference tweets in Week 16 was, "If they even make the playoffs. . ." It made sense in the heat of the moment, but despite the disappointing loss to the Raiders, this team is well-positioned to make the postseason for the ninth consecutive year.

According to The Upshot’s 2023 NFL playoff simulator via the New York Times, the Chiefs still have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Other models have the Chiefs' percentages even higher heading into Week 17. I've yet to see a model that gives the team any less than a 96% chance of making the AFC playoffs. 

How the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth in Week 17

The Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth and the AFC West division title in two different ways in Week 17. 

The easiest route is if Kansas City wins or ties the Bengals in their Week 17 matchup. Taking care of business against Cincinnati in the regular season hasn't exactly been easy for this team in the past, and if they play as poorly as they did in Week 16, they can lose to any team. 

The other route calls for some help against AFC West foes. If the Colts knock off the Raiders AND the Chargers defeat the Broncos, the Chiefs would clinch the AFC West division. From there on out it's all about seeding with the potential to earn the No. 2 seed, the No. 3 seed, or the No. 4 seed. 

To get the higher No. 2 seed, K.C. needs to win its final two games of the season and see Miami lose to both the Ravens and Bills. They'd also need Buffalo to implode and lose or tie with New England in Week 17, which isn't impossible given the history of that division.

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