Chiefs and Eagles Super Bowl LIX projections via sportsbooks look extremely different than Madden simulations
Super Bowl LIX is almost here. The Eagles are set to compete for a championship for the third time in the last eight years. The Chiefs are looking to win their third Super Bowl in a row.Sportsbooks believe they have this game figured out, favoring the Chiefs by a point and a half and setting […]
Super Bowl LIX is almost here. The Eagles are set to compete for a championship for the third time in the last eight years. The Chiefs are looking to win their third Super Bowl in a row.
Sportsbooks believe they have this game figured out, favoring the Chiefs by a point and a half and setting the point total at around 48.5. But do they have it right? Or could a much more innocent source, like the Madden 25 video game, actually perform better with projections this time around?
Sportsbooks do a wonderful job over the course of a season being right more often than wrong, but it's always a fun annual exercise to see if simulations via the Madden football video game can get things a bit more accurate when looking at just one game in the Super Bowl.
We at A to Z Sports took the time to run 50 different Super Bowl simulations via Madden this week, including one full-length play-by-play game to see what the most likely outcome might be. Enjoy!
Chiefs and Eagles defenses dominate early
The typical NFL game finishes with a point total of around 45 or 46 points. The most common exact point total concentration lands around 40 or 51 points specifically, but the average lies somewhere in the middle. So, Vegas clearly thinks by placing the point total around 48.5 on Super Bowl LIX that this may be an offensive contest. Madden projections disagree strongly (for whatever that's worth).
In the long-form play-by-play simulation we put together, both teams played an incredibly defensive game early on.
The Chiefs sacked Jalen Hurts immediately, burying the Eagles deep in their own territory to start the game. That didn't stop the Eagles from stringing together a handful of strong plays from both wide receiver AJ Brown and running back Saquon Barkley, but they still fell short of scoring. Chiefs' edge defender Mike Danna ultimately cut the opening drive for the Eagles short with a sack on Jalen Hurts.
The Chiefs followed up the Eagles' scoreless drive with an impressive one of their own. The Eagles sacked Patrick Mahomes, pushing them out of scoring range for a moment, but the Chiefs were able to manage a long field goal nonetheless to take a 3-0 lead.
The Eagles were driving following the early Chiefs score, but then Trent McDuffie made a game-changing play, picking off Jalen Hurts and running it back for a touchdown.
While this was just a simulation, Trent McDuffie has played some of his best football in the playoffs. In fact, he's averaged nearly 15 passes defended and four tackles per game in the playoffs with the Chiefs. It wouldn't be surprising at all if he were a huge impact player yet again in the actual Super Bowl LIX matchup.
After the pick-six in our simulation, the Jalen Hurts tried to lead a scoring drive with under two minutes to go. AJ Brown and tight end Dallas Goedert both made great plays, but Mike Danna logged back-to-back sacks to end yet another drive for the Eagles!
Halftime. 10-0 Chiefs.
Eagles' offense emerges too late
The second half of our Madden simulation began like the first, with back-to-back-to-back, quick scoreless drives for the Eagles and the Chiefs, with Jalen Carter nearly forcing a turnover on a sack, but then the Eagles found their groove. Carter has forced four career fumbles in just two seasons thanks to his absurd strength and fight for the ball on every play. A timely turnover might actually come from Carter's aggression in the real Super Bowl.
Despite finding themselves buried deep in their own territory once again, the Eagles put together the drive of the game, going nearly 90 yards. Hurts found Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith on clutch first-down receptions. Barkley finished things off with the rushing score.
The long touchdown came just a little too late for Philadelphia as Patrick Mahomes was able to put the game away with some timely plays from Travis Kelce and Samaje Perine. The Chiefs managed a field goal on their final drive and held on to win Super Bowl LIX 13-7.
This was just one of 50 simulations that we ran at A to Z Sports, but most every game ended in a defensive bout. The average Madden simulation came out to something near a 21-17 final score projection for a Chiefs win over the Eagles. Those expectations were far, far off of consensus sportsbook projections that favor a Chiefs victory with a 54% win probability and an implied final score somewhere around 25-23.
Practically speaking, it's safer to bet on an outcome near what sports books say is going to happen. However, there's certainly a clear path to the Madden projections actually proving more accurate this year.
Both offenses run quite slow compared to the league average while posting above-average-per-play efficiency. If the two defenses try and play clock control, banking on their own large sample per play success rates on offense to win them the day, this could, in fact, be a much lower-scoring game than expected.
Either way, it's a fun exercise to see what up-to-date large sample projections look like via the Madden video game. If Super Bowl LIX ends up as an extremely defensive battle, you heard it here first!
We'll be back with more Super Bowl coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
