Chiefs Playoff Picture: Kansas City delivers signature win over Colts to keep postseason hopes alive
The Chiefs actually dropped a spot in the AFC Playoff Picture, but their odds to make the postseason are looking much better.
Heading into Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts, the Kansas City Chiefs were 0-5 against the AFC playoff field. Now, they’ve got a signature win to hang their hat on against the league’s hottest offense.
With only seven games remaining, people wanted to write off the 5-5 Chiefs. They were admittedly running out of opportunities to prove themselves amid their struggles and their conscious efforts to improve this season. While they’ve still got a long way to climb to get back into the AFC playoff picture, things aren’t quite as bleak as they were after the Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos.
AFC Playoff Picture heading into NFL Week 12
- Patriots (10-2) – AFC East
- Broncos (9-2) – AFC West
- Colts (8-3) – AFC South
- Ravens (6-5) – AFC North
- Chargers (7-4) – WC
- Jaguars (7-4) – WC
- Bills (7-4) – WC
- Steelers (6-5) – In The Hunt
- Texans (6-5) – In The Hunt
- Chiefs (6-5) – In the Hunt
The funny thing about all this is that the Chiefs are even lower in the AFC playoff picture than they were a week ago, even after the 23-20 win over the Colts. That’s because they didn’t get much help from other teams. They’ve dropped from the No. 9 seed to the No. 10 seed in the AFC, but their odds of making the playoffs increased substantially with a win over the Colts. They now have a 66% chance to make the playoffs, a 53% chance of a wild-card spot, and a 13% chance to host a wild-card game as the AFC West winner. Had K.C. lost this game against Indy, their playoff odds would’ve dipped below 40%.
The Chiefs’ path to the playoffs remains clear as day
The Chiefs’ path to a postseason berth is pretty simple at this point. They’ve got six games left, and they realistically need to win all of them to give themselves the best chance to make the playoffs. As I mentioned earlier, five teams in the AFC playoff field currently own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Chiefs. If you finish the season with a better record than those teams, that tiebreaker won’t matter. 12-5 more than likely gets you a wild-card spot and maybe even the AFC West if a few things shake your way. However, at 11-6, you might miss out on the playoffs altogether because of tiebreakers.
Chiefs’ remaining 2025 NFL schedule
- Week 13: @ Cowboys
- Week 14: Texans
- Week 15: Chargers
- Week 16: @ Titans
- Week 17: Broncos
- Week 18: @ Raiders
If there’s something to root for that’s out of the Chiefs’ control, it’d be for the Jacksonville Jaguars to overtake the AFC South lead. The Colts still play the Jags twice, the Houston Texans twice, and the Seattle Seahawks once, and the San Francisco 49ers once. It’s not exactly a cakewalk. The Chiefs hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy now, so it’d be ideal if they were to drop to a wild-card team and finish with the same record as Kansas City. The Chiefs, of course, still need to take care of business themselves to even get to that point. Games to come against the Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos stand out the most.
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