State of the Chiefs: 3 bold predictions for the remainder of the season

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the midseason mark with a 7-2 overall record, and the top team in the AFC conference despite some uneasy offensive performances. Complementary football was the dream heading into this season, and the defense has held up their end of the bargain through the first nine weeks of play. The […]

Charles Goldman — NFL Managing Editor

Nov 10, 2023 10:57 AM EST

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the midseason mark with a 7-2 overall record, and the top team in the AFC conference despite some uneasy offensive performances.

Complementary football was the dream heading into this season, and the defense has held up their end of the bargain through the first nine weeks of play. The offense has some work to do if this team is to reach the ceiling. Can they get it done in the second half of the season?

Here are three bold predictions for Kansas City during the remainder of the 2023 season:

Patrick Mahomes and the offense will get right

After the Week 9 win over the Miami Dolphins, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes told NBC Sports' Peter King the following: “We’re gonna get this offense figured out, I promise you, and we’ll be a hard team to beat.”

That resonated with me for a few reasons, namely, because the Chiefs were set to enter the bye week. That's really the only juncture of the season where you can properly take the time to evaluate and fix an issue. You're not just putting a bandaid on it. The coaching staff will turn in their midseason evals, and work on correcting some of the issues that have plagued the team throughout the 2023 NFL season.

Everyone on this team recognizes that the offense hasn't performed to standard, especially when it comes to consistency in the passing game. They're going to be putting in a lot of work to rectify that this week. That means having the right combination of players on the field at the right time. It also means simplifying elements of the offense that might be holding the team back.

The defense will keep rolling and might get even better

This is undoubtedly the best defense that Steve Spagnuolo has fielded during his tenure as defensive coordinator in Kansas City. That's saying something given the fact that he's coached two Chiefs defenses to Super Bowl championships. After Week 9, this group ranks second in points per game, third in passing yards per game, and fourth in total yards per game. They're forcing fumbles at a league-high rate and their 31 sacks are tied for the second-most in the NFL so far this season. They've also allowed the fifth-fewest first downs in the league, both passing and rushing.

I think the big weakness of this defense right now is defending the run. They currently rank right in the middle of the pack as a run defense. That will only improve with time when LB Nick Bolton returns from injured reserve, and when the team feels comfortable elevating Mike Pennel to the 53-man roster. Pennel helped transform the defense back in 2019 en route to Super Bowl LIV. It feels like it's only a matter of time before he replaces a player like Matt Dickerson, who played just seven snaps in Week 9.

The Chiefs will host their sixth consecutive AFC championship game

As of Week 10, the Chiefs have a 43% probability of playing in the AFC title game. If they do make the game, it's highly likely that they play host to that game for the sixth consecutive season. Only the New England Patriots (eight consecutive from 2011-18) will have more consecutive seasons playing in the title game in NFL history.

The Baltimore Ravens are now the biggest threat to the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, and they play in the most competitive division in the NFL. Not only do they have games remaining against the Browns, Bengals, and Steelers, but they also have to play the Jaguars, Dolphins, 49ers, and Chargers. It's not an easy path.

That's not saying the Chiefs have an easy path themselves, but with a few timely wins in the next couple of weeks, they could quickly separate themselves in the race.

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