How the Chiefs can secure a Trey Smith extension before the July 15 deadline—and what’s at stake if they don’t
With the clock ticking toward the upcoming July 15 deadline, contract talks are expected to intensify between the Kansas City Chiefs and franchise-tagged RG Trey Smith. Negotiations have been at a standstill, with Smith's camp holding considerable leverage in the talks due to various factors, including the franchise tag and the Joe Thuney trade. In the […]
With the clock ticking toward the upcoming July 15 deadline, contract talks are expected to intensify between the Kansas City Chiefs and franchise-tagged RG Trey Smith.
Negotiations have been at a standstill, with Smith's camp holding considerable leverage in the talks due to various factors, including the franchise tag and the Joe Thuney trade. In the NFL, deadlines spur action. Both sides have made it clear that they prefer a long-term deal; it's just a matter of finding the proper middle ground.
Can that middle ground be reached in just eight short days? What happens if the two sides fail to reach an agreement on a long-term contract extension before the July 15 deadline?
What happens if the Chiefs do not extend Trey Smith before the July 15 deadline?
Let's start with the bad news. Absent a long-term deal, Smith would be forced to play on the franchise tag during the 2025 NFL season. However, the lack of an agreement would say a great deal more about Smith's future with the club.
The expectation would drastically change because designating Smith with a second consecutive franchise tag in 2026 would cost 120% of the current $23.4M franchise tag cost. That means tagging Smith again in 2026 would cost the team over $28M, which isn't a realistic per-year average when you consider the highest-paid offensive guards in football: Landon Dickerson ($21M), Chris Lindstrom ($20.5 APY).
No deal would be an enormous step closer to Smith's departure in the 2026 NFL Free Agency period. That, in turn, would put a lot of pressure on a relatively young and unproven interior offensive line outside of Creed Humphrey. So, how can the Chiefs avoid reaching that juncture?
Contract extension milestones the Chiefs will need to hit for Trey Smith
Before the Chiefs surprised by placing the franchise tag on Smith, I initially expected a deal that mimicked Creed Humphrey's percentage of the salary cap (7%). At a $277.5 million salary cap, that'd average out to a $19.425 million per-year average for Smith. That number simply won't work, given the use of the franchise tag, the Chiefs' history, and the "up next" precedent in the NFL.
The franchise tag number sets Smith's salary at $23.4M for the 2025 NFL season, and convincing him to accept an average annual salary less than that mark will be a tough sell. The best bet is to use the contract of Landon Dickerson, the highest-paid guard in the league, to structure things on a per-year basis. To get to an amicable point, the Chiefs would need to pay 7.8% of their annual salary cap space at $21.6M AAV, but that's only just the start.
Guaranteed money will also come into play here. The Chiefs' last interior offensive line contract (Humphrey) had just $35 million in fully guaranteed money at signing. If you look at Robert Hunt ($60M), Dickerson ($50M), and Chris Lindstrom ($48.2M), that amount won't be enough for Smith and Kansas City. They'll likely need a record-setting guarantee, whether we're talking a four-year or five-year extension.
A substantial signing bonus is another way the Chiefs can sweeten the pot here. Lindstrom's $27.5M signing bonus ranked as the highest in NFL history by an offensive guard. They'll need to top that number as well, which will help them keep the contract per-year averages to a slight bump, compared to something that pushes guard contracts into the next stratosphere.
Skyy Moore’s last gasp, Trey Smith’s trade value, Who is RB1, and more questions answered in latest Chiefs offseason mailbag
Our July 4th edition of the Kansas City Chiefs offseason mailbag covers Skyy Moore, Isiah Pacheco, Trey Smith, and more.
