The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) are coming to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) for a game that could have significant implications for the AFC playoff field. With a loss to the Colts, the Chiefs’ playoff probabilities would drop from 52% to around 35%. With a win, they would surge to 63% for Kansas City.

An AFC playoff field without the Chiefs in it would be a career first for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. The last time K.C. missed the playoffs was the 2014 NFL season, only Andy Reid’s second year as the team’s head coach. Beyond the playoff ramifications, Mahomes also has some personal stake in this one. He’ll have an opportunity to slay a three-headed dragon, with the playoff implications and narrative being head No. 1. The two other heads have burned Mahomes in the past.

The Colts have been a thorn in Patrick Mahomes’ side during the NFL’s regular season

With a win against Indy in Week 12, Mahomes will have beaten 31 of 32 NFL teams. The only team left to be slain would be his own, and hopefully that never comes to pass because it’d mean he’s playing for another team. The Colts are the one team in the NFL that Mahomes hasn’t beaten during the NFL’s regular season since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018. He is 0-2 in the regular season, having lost to Jacoby Brissett and Matt Ryan-led Indy teams in 2019 and 2022, respectively. The saving grace here for Mahomes is that he won the playoff game against an Andrew Luck-led Colts squad in January 2019. Ultimately, Indianapolis has got the better of Mahomes during recent matchups, and the pendulum swinging back the other way won’t be a cakewalk for Kansas City.

Colts DC Lou Anarumo has been an even bigger thorn in Patrick Mahomes’ side

A familiar face on the opposing sideline, Colts DC Lou Anarumo is one of two NFL defensive coordinators who can say he stopped Patrick Mahomes from advancing to the Super Bowl in an AFC Championship Game. Anarumo spent six seasons as the DC for the Cincinnati Bengals, where he became known for putting together schemes to stifle Mahomes and the Chiefs’ creativity on offense. He’d disguise coverages with late rotations, use different players to spy Mahomes, and use some very unique blitz plans to get No. 15 off his mark. Basically, he did everything possible to become unpredictable.

“They (Indianapolis Colts) definitely do some of the stuff,” Mahomes said. “(Colts Defensive Coordinator) Coach (Lou) Anarumo is a great defensive coordinator, a great coach, and he has his stuff, but what I think makes him such a great defensive coordinator is that he tailors his scheme to the team that he’s playing with. He wants to go with their strengths. Getting their guys in the best position to succeed, and even from some of the trades that they’ve made, they’ve adjusted their defense as well. I think that’s something that makes him a great coach is that he’s not stuck in his ways of how he calls things, he adjusts his scheme to the team that’s around him, and obviously they have done a lot of great things this year.”

A to Z Sports’ own Destin Adams notes that Mahomes has only thrown for over 300 yards once in his six games against Anarumo. Something achieved by blitzing at a high rate and forcing Mahomes to throw to the checkdown at a higher rate than he would typically. For the Colts, that’s what their new-look secondary with recent trade acquisition Sauce Gardner is all about. They’re able to run a higher percentage of blitzes, speed up quarterbacks, and force some tighter window throws.

“Obviously, there’s going to be some difficulties there, but at the same time we’ve played him (Colts Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo) so many times that you just go back and watch every game that you’ve played against him and see the different things that he has done to you,” Mahomes explained. “The changeups he has thrown at you, and then you know there is going to be a wrinkle that he has this game (and) try and make a positive play out of it. It doesn’t have to be a home run shot, but getting the ball to a checkdown, getting the ball to a guy that can get five to six yards, and then get back into the flow of the game. I think that’s important against him is that he’ll continue to throw different things at you just to make sure that you’re not settled with what he’s calling, and that’s something that I have to continue to be great with throughout the entire football game.”

A win here wouldn’t just give Mahomes a 4-3 record against Anarumo, but it’d also provide a big boost of confidence to get over on a coordinator that has caused him fits in the past.

What’s the weakest point of the Colts’ defense that Patrick Mahomes can exploit?

As good as Anarumo has been against Mahomes, he hasn’t been untouchable. The last three matchups have gone Kansas City’s way. His defense has allowed 20 or more points in 7 of 10 games so far this season. What can Mahomes do to exploit it in Week 12? We asked our resident Colts expert for his thoughts on the matter.

“For the Colts, I think there are two areas opposing teams should focus on. First, their secondary has obviously undergone a significant change with the addition of Sauce Gardner. This improves the pass defense, but it can also impact synergy and communication within the Colts’ defense. A QB like Mahomes can take advantage of any mistake a defense makes, and I think it would be smart for teams to be hyper-focused on potential miscommunication by the Colts that could lead to a big play.

“Secondly, the Colts’ run defense struggled with DeForest Buckner in Week 10, but honestly, it wasn’t great even before his injury. The Chiefs have struggled to run the ball this season and could easily put it on the back burner in their game plan. I think that would be a mistake, though, especially with the Colts’ secondary potentially being at full strength for the first time this season if Charvarius Ward can return in Week 12.” – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports, Indianapolis

If the Chiefs get into the habit of running the football and forcing miscommunication in the secondary, they’ll have a good chance in this one. However, it’ll take everyone on offense rising to the occasion and not just Mahomes, especially after a pair of disappointing losses marred by offensive inconsistency in Week 9 and Week 11.

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