Final predictions for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans AFC divisional round showdown on Saturday

In the AFC divisional round of the NFL playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs (the No. 1 seed) will host the Houston Texans (the No. 4 seed) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. A trip to the AFC Championship Game is on the line for these two teams. For Kansas City, it'd be their […]

Charles Goldman — NFL Managing Editor
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Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
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In the AFC divisional round of the NFL playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs (the No. 1 seed) will host the Houston Texans (the No. 4 seed) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

A trip to the AFC Championship Game is on the line for these two teams. For Kansas City, it'd be their seventh consecutive AFC title game appearance. For the Texans, it'd be the first time in franchise history that they made it to the AFC title matchup. These two clubs faced each other in the exact location less than a month ago in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. The Chiefs emerged from that game with a 27-19 victory over the Texans, but both teams have undergone substantial changes since then. 

Our A to Z Sports writing staff has submitted their predictions for this AFC showdown. Below, you can view those predictions.

Charles Goldman's prediction

Chiefs 34, Texans 17

I think this game will be one of the Chiefs' more convincing wins this season. They're rested, healthy, and highly motivated to host another AFC Championship Game en route to Super Bowl LIX. Houston is coming off a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional round, but they won't have such an easy time at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The crowd noise alone will challenge them, especially with all the injuries and moving parts they've got on the offensive line.

Jaylen Watson's impending return gives Kansas City the pieces they need to play a more aggressive man coverage scheme that Steve Spagnuolo wants to run. The Texans are hurting in the wide receiver department with Tank Dell on IR, Robert Woods banged up, and Diontae Johnson released just this week. If the pass protection can't hold up for C.J. Stroud, it will be a long day for him when he drops back to pass. A major focus will be boxing up Joe Mixon, who wound up on the injury report with an ankle ailment on Wednesday. 

Patrick Mahomes and the offense have much to prove after what was mostly a disappointing season on that side of the ball. He's also got no shortage of bulletin board material and extra motivation leading into this one. I tend to think that a fresh backfield, Travis Kelce & Noah Gray at tight end, and a wide receiver room featuring Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy will be more than enough to get this group through to the title game, even against a Houston defense that has proven challenging. 

The biggest question mark will be whether the offensive tackle position can provide the protection that Mahomes needs and has lacked throughout the year. Given that they got the job done with Joe Thuney and Mike Caliendo last time around, I think that whatever combination they choose will be successful.

Nick Roesch's prediction

Chiefs 27, Texans 17

Despite limping into the playoffs, losing two of their last three regular-season games, the Texans revived themselves with a blowout win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. Running back Joe Mixon was Houston’s workhorse, racking up 119 total yards on 26 touches. I think the Texans will want to stick with that formula against the Chiefs, but it will be challenging as Kansas City has an excellent run defense.

Houston has struggled along its offensive line this season, surrendering the third-most sacks in the NFL with 54. To make matters tougher, starting right guard Shaq Mason has already been declared out for this game, and his backup, Juice Scruggs, is in jeopardy of not playing with an ankle injury. I expect the Chiefs to keep quarterback C.J. Stroud under duress for most of the day and cash in for a couple of turnovers.

As for Kansas City’s offense, protecting the ball should by far be its top priority. The Texans picked off Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times last week, which was the biggest factor of the game. There’s no reason for the Chiefs to give the Texans any extra possessions or momentum. If it means being a bit conservative, so be it. The Chiefs have a better roster and coaching staff, and they play at home. If they play clean, the chances of Houston pulling an upset will be microscopic.

Sophie Weller's prediction

Chiefs 27, Texans 17

The Kansas City Chiefs have all they need to win this game. 

While the Houston Texans ultimately got a big win over the Chargers in the Wildcard round, that game also exposed many issues. Specifically, with Houston's struggles along the offensive line, the Chiefs defense should be able to pressure C.J. Stroud, not allowing him to make plays and potentially forcing mistakes. And then, there's Houston's run game led by Joe Mixon, but Kansas City's run defense is solid. The offense, with two weeks to rest and Patrick Mahomes in the pocket, is always a recipe for success.

Brandon Little's prediction

Chiefs 28, Texans 17

Turnovers was the name of the game for the Texans in their first playoff game against the Chargers. Houston fumbled the ball away twice, and C.J. Stroud threw an interception. That can’t happen against the Chiefs or this one is over before it starts. On the flip side, the Texans need to carry over the success that they had against Justin Herbert and find a way to take the ball away once again. Houston has an elite defense, and their best chance in this game is to get Patrick Mahomes to cough one up.

On the flip side, I can’t go against the Chiefs this early in the playoffs for them. With their recent success, I expect them to come out looking like a team that has made the Super Bowls lately. This game may be interesting most of the way, but Kansas City will maintain control throughout.

Ian Valentino's prediction

Chiefs 24, Texans 14

We saw these teams play a few weeks ago, and Houston looked like the young team lacking the discipline and talent needed to really push the defending World Champions. I think Kansas City will turn things up another gear in the postseason, but it won't need to go too crazy against a banged-up roster that lacks matching star power. The Chiefs win by two scores, but this feels like a blowout. 

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