The journey to the Super Bowl is a difficult one. It's not easy to make it to the NFL, let alone it's championship game. But where does the journey begin for the few players who actually get to participate in football's most celebrated competition? For many it's in high school, where they're evaluated by scouts across the nation and ultimately assigned a star rating, signifying just how good they might be one day based on their athletic traits and production.

If you aren't too familiar with the system, players receive a star rating, with five being the best (although sites don't assign any star ratings below two). In every recruiting class there are about 40 five stars, 400 four stars, and 2000 three stars. The other 250,000 high school graduating seniors who play football rate somewhere below that or not at all.

But how were key Chiefs and 49ers players in Super Bowl LVIII rated coming out of high school? Let's take a look at how both offenses and defenses stack up by recruiting rating, both among their starters and key rotational players (with 150+ snaps this season).

Chiefs Offense

Player	Star Rating	Initial School	2023-24 Snaps
QB Patrick Mahomes	3	Texas Tech	1259
RB Isaih Pacheco	3	Rutgers	723
WR Rashee Rice	3	SMU	785
WR Marquez Valdes Scantling	3	NC State	741
WR Justin Watson	0	Penn	649
TE Travis Kelce	2	Cincinnati	948
C Creed Humphrey	4	Oklahoma	1301
RG Trey Smith	5	Tennessee	1295
RT Jawaan Taylor	3	Florida	1285
LG Joe Thuney	2	NC State	1212
LT Donovan Smith	4	Penn State	958
TE Noah Gray	3	Duke	708
WR Skyy Moore	3	Western Michigan	496
OT Wanya Morris	5	Tennessee	340
TE Blake Bell	4	Oklahoma	302
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	LSU	279
RB Jerick McKinnon	3	Georgia Southern	264
WR Kadarius Toney	3	Florida	229
WR Richie James	0	MTSU	185
Nick Allegretti	3	Illinois	174
Mecole Hardman	5	Georgia	171

49ers Offense

Player	Star Rating	Initial School	2023-24 Snaps
QB Brock Purdy	3	Iowa State	1066
RB Christian McCaffrey	4	Stanford	935
WR Brandon Aiyuk	0	Sierra College	923
WR Deebo Samuel	3	South Carolina	768
TE George Kittle	3	Iowa	1021
FB Kyle Juszczyk	0	Harvard	561
RT Colton McKivitz	3	West Virginia	1170
C Jake Brendel	3	UCLA	1154
LG Aaron Banks	4	Notre Dame	967
LT Trent Williams	3	Oklahoma	938
RG Spencer Burford	3	UTSA	856
OL Jon Feliciano	3	Miami (FL)	598
WR Jauan Jennings	4	Tennessee	429
TE Charlie Woerner	4	Georgia	334
WR Ray-Ray McCloud III	4	Clemson	230
OL Jaylon Moore	2	Western Michigan	227
WR Ronnie Bell	3	Michigan	185
RB Elijah Mitchell	2	Louisiana	168

Among the likely offensive starters for the Chiefs the average star rating in high school was 3.27. For the 49ers? 2.64. If we include all significant rotational players the average drops to 3.05 for the Chiefs offense, but rises to 2.83 for the 49ers. In both cases, the recruit star rating talent edge goes to the Chiefs.

One thing you might notice right away is that the Chiefs have zero four and five star recruits among their skill position players. The 49ers only have one in Christian McCaffrey.

This might lead one to believe that "stars don't matter" in predicting NFL success, but this year's Super Bowl player pool is more an exception to the rule than the norm. Every NFL roster has a larger percentage of three star players than anything else, but that's because (like mentioned at the start of this article) there are 50 times more three stars than five stars in every single recruiting class. 10 times more four stars than five stars as well.

In fact, when you adjust for the number of players in each stars bucket we find that five stars are actually 70 times more likely to get first round NFL Draft capital than three stars, and succeed at a much higher rate overall.

However, offensive players with lower star ratings do hit at a higher rate than their defensive counterparts. Let's see how things stack up on the defensive side of the ball.

Chiefs Defense

Player	Star Rating	Initial School	2023-24 Snaps
CB L’Jarius Snead	3	Louisiana Tech	1185
S Justin Reid	3	Stanford	1174
CB Trent McDuffie	4	Washington	1168
EDGE George Karlaftis	4	Purdue	911
DL Chris Jones	5	Mississippi State	892
EDGE Mike Danna	3	Central Michigan	874
S Mike Edwards	4	Kentucky	736
LB Drue Tranquill	4	Notre Dame	692
LB Willie Gay Jr.	4	Mississippi State	659
LB Nick Bolton	3	Missouri	634
S Bryan Cook	0	Cincinnati	593
CB Jaylen Watson	0	Ventura College	511
DL Derrick Nnadi	4	Florida State	507
EDGE Charles Omenihu	3	Texas	502
LB Leo Chenal	3	Wisconsin	500
DL Tershawn Wharton	0	Missouri A&T	488
S Chamarri Conner	4	Virginia Tech	444
CB Joshua Williams	0	Fayetteville State	400
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah	3	Kansas State	218
DL Matt Dickerson	4	UCLA	206
Malik Herring	4	Georiga	195
Jack Cochrane	0	South Dakota	183

49ers Defense

Over half of the Chiefs starting defensive players are blue chips (four or five star) with only one (Bryan Cook) having been a zero star recruit. Their average star rating is 3.36. The 49ers have seven blue chips among their starters, averaging 3.27 stars. Advantage Chiefs yet again.

But why is it that the defensive players seem to have significantly higher star ratings than their offensive peers?

Short answer, defensive players are oftentimes the more physically talented athletes. At defensive back, they have to be fast enough to recover when initially beaten by opposing wide receivers. Defensive lineman and edge rushers have to be athletic enough to beat offensive lineman that in many cases have 30 to 40 pounds on them.

Also, the bodies of offensive lineman and the arms of quarterbacks aren't anywhere near yet developed when they're coming out of high school. In many cases, offensive lineman who make it to the NFL actually began at a different position. They may have begun their career as a defensive lineman or oftentimes at tight end. In fact, Jaylon Moore for the 49ers began his career at Western Michigan as a tight end.

---

It seems that the Chiefs have the edge on both offense and defense when it comes to recruiting pedigree out of high school. That likely won't be the deciding factor for the Super Bowl, but it's fun to see where all these players began, and how each team's athletic upside compares to one another.