2026 season · Week 11

Boise State Broncos Playoff Chances

Updated November 11, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Boise St (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12) has a 53% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 69% chance to win the Pac-12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It has a 53% chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which earns an automatic bid. Projected regular-season wins: 10.4. Biggest game left: vs. Oregon St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Boise St at 68%, a loss at 10%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: 85% · 10-2: 17% · 9-3: 0%.

Boise State Broncos odds (November 11, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff53%
Win the Pac-1269%
Reach the conference championship98%
Top-ranked Group of 6 team53%
Reach the semifinals2%
Win the national title<1%

Boise St playoff odds at a glance

Boise St (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12) has a 53% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 69% chance to win the Pac-12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It has a 53% chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which earns an automatic bid. Projected regular-season wins: 10.4. Biggest game left: vs. Oregon St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Boise St at 68%, a loss at 10%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: 85% · 10-2: 17% · 9-3: 0%.

More Pac-12: Pac-12 championship odds · Colorado St · Fresno St · Oregon St · San Diego St · Texas St · Utah State · Washington St · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated November 11, 2026 · results through Wed, Nov 11 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 6,000 times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff, wins its conference, reaches its title game, earns a first-round bye and wins the national title.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. The committee counts. Our odds factor in the CFP committee's latest Top 25 and where we project it goes next. The CFP Top 25 shows the committee's 12 in gold.
  6. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in. Switch to 24 teams to see the field under the 2027 rules.
  7. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  8. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Boise St's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 53% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). The Boise State Broncos are 8-1 (5-0 in the Pac-12). Chance to be the top-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid: 53%. Chance to win the national title: less than 1%.

What does Boise St need to make the playoff?

If Boise St finishes the regular season 11-1, it makes the playoff in 85% of simulated seasons; at 10-2, 17%; at 9-3, 0%. The biggest game left is vs. Oregon St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts Boise St at 68%, a loss at 10%. Winning the Pac-12 helps most: Boise St wins it in 69% of simulations.

Who should Boise St fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Boise St most: Washington St over Oregon St (Week 13, +5 points); UNLV over New Mexico (Week 11, +7 points); Air Force over New Mexico (Week 13, +7 points). Each number is how much that result alone raises Boise St's playoff odds.

Can Boise St win the Pac-12?

Boise St reaches the Pac-12 Championship in 98% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 69%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the Pac-12's official tiebreakers.

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