2026 season · Week 11

North Texas Mean Green Playoff Chances

Updated November 11, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

North Texas (7-2, 5-0 American) has a 4% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 52% chance to win the American and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It has a 4% chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which earns an automatic bid. Projected regular-season wins: 9.2. Biggest game left: at UTSA (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts North Texas at 7%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 10-2: 9% · 9-3: <1% · 8-4: 0%.

North Texas Mean Green odds (November 11, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff4%
Win the American52%
Reach the conference championship85%
Top-ranked Group of 6 team4%
Reach the semifinals<1%
Win the national title<1%

North Texas playoff odds at a glance

North Texas (7-2, 5-0 American) has a 4% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 52% chance to win the American and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It has a 4% chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which earns an automatic bid. Projected regular-season wins: 9.2. Biggest game left: at UTSA (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts North Texas at 7%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 10-2: 9% · 9-3: <1% · 8-4: 0%.

More American: American championship odds · Army · Charlotte · East Carolina · FAU · Memphis · Navy · Rice · South Florida · Temple · Tulane · Tulsa · UAB · UTSA · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated November 11, 2026 · results through Wed, Nov 11 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 6,000 times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff, wins its conference, reaches its title game, earns a first-round bye and wins the national title.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. The committee counts. Our odds factor in the CFP committee's latest Top 25 and where we project it goes next. The CFP Top 25 shows the committee's 12 in gold.
  6. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in. Switch to 24 teams to see the field under the 2027 rules.
  7. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  8. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are North Texas's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 4% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). The North Texas Mean Green are 7-2 (5-0 in the American). Chance to be the top-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid: 4%. Chance to win the national title: less than 1%.

What does North Texas need to make the playoff?

If North Texas finishes the regular season 10-2, it makes the playoff in 9% of simulated seasons; at 9-3, less than 1%; at 8-4, 0% (no at-large spot with four or more regular-season losses). The biggest game left is at UTSA (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts North Texas at 7%, a loss at less than 1%. Winning the American helps most: North Texas wins it in 52% of simulations.

Who should North Texas fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help North Texas most: Oregon St over Boise St (Week 11, +4 points); Utah State over Boise St (Week 13, +4 points); San Diego St over Boise St (Week 12, +5 points). Each number is how much that result alone raises North Texas's playoff odds.

Can North Texas win the American?

North Texas reaches the American Championship in 85% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 52%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the American's official tiebreakers.

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