2026 season · Week 11
American Championship & Playoff Odds
North Texas is the favorite to win the American at 52%, ahead of Memphis (28%) and UTSA (16%), according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026, official American tiebreakers). Most likely title game: Memphis vs. North Texas (48% of simulated seasons), December 5 at the higher seed's stadium. A American team is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid, in 6% of simulations. Best playoff odds: North Texas 4%.
| Team | Record | Conference | Make CFP | Win conference | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green | 7-2 | American | 4% | 52% | <1% |
| Memphis Tigers | 7-2 | American | 1% | 28% | <1% |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 7-2 | American | 1% | 16% | <1% |
| Army Black Knights | 5-4 | American | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| East Carolina Pirates | 5-4 | American | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 6-3 | American | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| UAB Blazers | 5-4 | American | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| South Florida Bulls | 6-3 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 5-4 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte 49ers | 1-8 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Navy Midshipmen | 3-6 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice Owls | 1-8 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple Owls | 2-7 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulane Green Wave | 4-5 | American | <1% | <1% | <1% |