2026 season · Week 11
Mountain West Championship & Playoff Odds
New Mexico is the favorite to win the Mountain West at 71%, ahead of N Dakota St (19%) and Wyoming (6%), according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026, official Mountain West tiebreakers). Most likely title game: New Mexico vs. N Dakota St (49% of simulated seasons), December 4 at the higher seed's stadium. A Mountain West team is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid, in 22% of simulations. Best playoff odds: New Mexico 21%.
| Team | Record | Conference | Make CFP | Win conference | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Lobos | 8-1 | Mountain West | 21% | 71% | <1% |
| North Dakota State Bison | 7-2 | Mountain West | <1% | 19% | <1% |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 6-3 | Mountain West | <1% | 6% | <1% |
| Air Force Falcons | 7-2 | Mountain West | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| UNLV Rebels | 5-4 | Mountain West | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| San José State Spartans | 5-5 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 3-6 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 3-6 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 0-9 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP Miners | 1-8 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |