2026 season · Week 8
Mountain West Championship & Playoff Odds
New Mexico is the favorite to win the Mountain West at 51%, ahead of N Dakota St (27%) and Air Force (10%), according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026, official Mountain West tiebreakers). Most likely title game: New Mexico vs. N Dakota St (41% of simulated seasons), December 4 at the higher seed's stadium. A Mountain West team is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid, in 10% of simulations. Best playoff odds: New Mexico 7% and N Dakota St 2%.
| Team | Record | Conference | Make CFP | Win conference | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Lobos | 5-1 | Mountain West | 7% | 51% | <1% |
| North Dakota State Bison | 6-1 | Mountain West | 2% | 27% | <1% |
| Air Force Falcons | 5-1 | Mountain West | 1% | 10% | <1% |
| UNLV Rebels | 4-3 | Mountain West | <1% | 7% | <1% |
| San José State Spartans | 4-3 | Mountain West | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 4-3 | Mountain West | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 2-4 | Mountain West | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 0-6 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 1-6 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP Miners | 1-6 | Mountain West | <1% | <1% | <1% |