2026 season · Week 8

C-USA Championship & Playoff Odds

Updated October 18, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Liberty is the favorite to win the C-USA at 65%, ahead of Jax State (15%) and FIU (6%), according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026, official C-USA tiebreakers). Most likely title game: Jax State vs. Liberty (49% of simulated seasons), December 4 at the higher seed's stadium. A C-USA team is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid, in 3% of simulations. Best playoff odds: Liberty 3%.

C-USA odds
TeamRecordConferenceMake CFPWin conferenceWin title
Liberty Flames5-1C-USA3%65%<1%
Jacksonville State Gamecocks5-2C-USA<1%15%<1%
Florida International Panthers3-3C-USA<1%6%<1%
New Mexico State Aggies2-4C-USA<1%4%<1%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers3-4C-USA<1%3%<1%
Missouri State Bears2-4C-USA<1%2%<1%
Delaware Blue Hens2-4C-USA<1%2%<1%
Kennesaw State Owls1-5C-USA<1%1%<1%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders3-3C-USA<1%1%<1%
Sam Houston Bearkats1-5C-USA<1%<1%<1%

C-USA race at a glance

Liberty is the favorite to win the C-USA at 65%, ahead of Jax State (15%) and FIU (6%), according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026, official C-USA tiebreakers). Most likely title game: Jax State vs. Liberty (49% of simulated seasons), December 4 at the higher seed's stadium. A C-USA team is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which gets an automatic bid, in 3% of simulations. Best playoff odds: Liberty 3%.

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated October 18, 2026 · results through Week 7 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" — your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in.
  6. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the C-USA in 2026?

Liberty, at 65% in the A to Z Sports model, followed by Jax State (15%), FIU (6%) and New Mexico St (4%). The most likely C-USA Championship matchup is Jax State vs. Liberty (49% of simulated seasons). The game is December 4, 2026, at the higher seed's stadium.

How many C-USA teams will make the College Football Playoff?

The C-USA has no automatic bid of its own. The highest-ranked team from the six Group of 6 conferences gets one, and a C-USA team earns it in 3% of simulations. Playoff odds: Liberty 3%.

How does the C-USA break ties for its championship game?

C-USA tiebreakers, in order: 1) Head-to-head among the tied teams; 2) Record vs. all common conference opponents; 3) Record vs. the highest-placed common opponent, then down the standings; 4) SportSource / computer rating (estimated in the simulations); 5) Combined conference win % of all conference opponents; 6) Random draw. A tie for a title-game spot happens in 34% of simulated seasons. Source: C-USA policy PDF, Sep 2024 (secondary sources list a different order).