2026 season · Week 9

NFC South Race & Playoff Odds

Updated Tue, Nov 3 · Based on 10,000 simulated seasons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the favorites to win the NFC South at 35% in the A to Z Sports model, followed by the Panthers (31%), the Falcons (23%) and the Saints (11%). Playoff odds: Buccaneers 37%, Panthers 33%, Falcons 25% and Saints 12%. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

NFC South odds
TeamRecordDivisionMake playoffsWin divisionWin Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-5NFC South37%35%1%
Carolina Panthers3-4NFC South33%31%1%
Atlanta Falcons3-5NFC South25%23%1%
New Orleans Saints2-5NFC South12%11%<1%

NFC South race at a glance

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the favorites to win the NFC South at 35% in the A to Z Sports model, followed by the Panthers (31%), the Falcons (23%) and the Saints (11%). Playoff odds: Buccaneers 37%, Panthers 33%, Falcons 25% and Saints 12%. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

NFC South teams: Falcons · Panthers · Saints · Buccaneers · Other divisions: AFC East · AFC North · AFC South · AFC West · NFC East · NFC North · NFC West · All 32 teams

About the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor: every team's path to the 2026 NFL playoffs. It gives all 32 teams their odds to make the playoffs, win their division, earn the No. 1 seed and win Super Bowl LXI, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with the NFL's official tiebreakers and playoff format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Updated Tue, Nov 3 with results through Week 8. Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

How to use the NFL Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, earns the No. 1 seed and wins the Super Bowl.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make it the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update across the league.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim week" or "Sim the season" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Watch the standings move. Every standing uses the NFL's official tiebreakers: head-to-head, division and conference record, common games, strength of victory and the rest.
  5. Pick the playoffs. See the Bracket shows the projected 14-team field. Tap any team to send it through; the bracket reseeds after the Wild Card round, just like the real one.
  6. Go deeper. Division pages show each race and how its ties get broken. Team pages show what your team needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the playoff picture or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win the NFC South?

The A to Z Sports model favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 35%. Panthers 31%, Falcons 23% and Saints 11%.

How are ties in the NFC South broken?

With the NFL's official division tiebreakers: head-to-head, then division record, record in common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, points-based rankings and finally a coin toss. With three or more teams, head-to-head uses the combined record among the tied teams. A tie for the division title happens in 23% of simulations; it's settled most often by head-to-head record and division record.

How many NFC South teams make the playoffs?

The division winner is guaranteed a top-four seed. Other NFC South teams can still earn one of the conference's three wild-card spots. In the simulations, an average of 1.1 NFC South teams make the playoffs.

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