2026 season · Week 9

AFC East Race & Playoff Odds

Updated Tue, Nov 3 · Based on 10,000 simulated seasons

The Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East at 77% in the A to Z Sports model, followed by the Patriots (22%), the Jets (<1%) and the Dolphins (<1%). Playoff odds: Bills 97%, Patriots 76%, Jets 1% and Dolphins <1%. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

AFC East odds
TeamRecordDivisionMake playoffsWin divisionWin Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills6-1AFC East97%77%13%
New England Patriots5-3AFC East76%22%4%
New York Jets2-6AFC East1%<1%<1%
Miami Dolphins1-6AFC East<1%<1%<1%

AFC East race at a glance

The Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East at 77% in the A to Z Sports model, followed by the Patriots (22%), the Jets (<1%) and the Dolphins (<1%). Playoff odds: Bills 97%, Patriots 76%, Jets 1% and Dolphins <1%. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

AFC East teams: Bills · Dolphins · Patriots · Jets · Other divisions: AFC North · AFC South · AFC West · NFC East · NFC North · NFC South · NFC West · All 32 teams

About the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor: every team's path to the 2026 NFL playoffs. It gives all 32 teams their odds to make the playoffs, win their division, earn the No. 1 seed and win Super Bowl LXI, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with the NFL's official tiebreakers and playoff format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Updated Tue, Nov 3 with results through Week 8. Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

How to use the NFL Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, earns the No. 1 seed and wins the Super Bowl.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make it the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update across the league.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim week" or "Sim the season" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Watch the standings move. Every standing uses the NFL's official tiebreakers: head-to-head, division and conference record, common games, strength of victory and the rest.
  5. Pick the playoffs. See the Bracket shows the projected 14-team field. Tap any team to send it through; the bracket reseeds after the Wild Card round, just like the real one.
  6. Go deeper. Division pages show each race and how its ties get broken. Team pages show what your team needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the playoff picture or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win the AFC East?

The A to Z Sports model favors the Buffalo Bills at 77%. Patriots 22%, Jets <1% and Dolphins <1%.

How are ties in the AFC East broken?

With the NFL's official division tiebreakers: head-to-head, then division record, record in common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, points-based rankings and finally a coin toss. With three or more teams, head-to-head uses the combined record among the tied teams. A tie for the division title happens in 10% of simulations; it's settled most often by head-to-head record and division record.

How many AFC East teams make the playoffs?

The division winner is guaranteed a top-four seed. Other AFC East teams can still earn one of the conference's three wild-card spots. In the simulations, an average of 1.7 AFC East teams make the playoffs.

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