2026 season · Week 9

New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Updated Tue, Nov 3 · Based on 10,000 simulated seasons

The New England Patriots (5-3) have a 76% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs in the A to Z Sports model, a 22% chance to win the AFC East and a 4% chance to win Super Bowl LXI. They are projected to finish with 10.2 wins. By final record: 10-7 (94%), 11-6 (more than 99%), 9-8 (57%). Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

New England Patriots odds (Tue, Nov 3)
Make the playoffs76%
Win the AFC East22%
No. 1 seed in the AFC4%
Reach Super Bowl LXI7%
Win Super Bowl LXI4%

Patriots playoff odds at a glance

The New England Patriots (5-3) have a 76% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs in the A to Z Sports model, a 22% chance to win the AFC East and a 4% chance to win Super Bowl LXI. They are projected to finish with 10.2 wins. By final record: 10-7 (94%), 11-6 (more than 99%), 9-8 (57%). Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with the NFL's official tiebreakers (updated Tue, Nov 3).

More AFC East: AFC East race · Bills · Dolphins · Jets · All 32 teams

About the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor: every team's path to the 2026 NFL playoffs. It gives all 32 teams their odds to make the playoffs, win their division, earn the No. 1 seed and win Super Bowl LXI, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with the NFL's official tiebreakers and playoff format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Updated Tue, Nov 3 with results through Week 8. Odds from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

How to use the NFL Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, earns the No. 1 seed and wins the Super Bowl.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make it the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update across the league.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim week" or "Sim the season" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Watch the standings move. Every standing uses the NFL's official tiebreakers: head-to-head, division and conference record, common games, strength of victory and the rest.
  5. Pick the playoffs. See the Bracket shows the projected 14-team field. Tap any team to send it through; the bracket reseeds after the Wild Card round, just like the real one.
  6. Go deeper. Division pages show each race and how its ties get broken. Team pages show what your team needs, who to root for and where it would pick in the draft.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the playoff picture or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are the Patriots' chances to make the playoffs?

A 76% chance. That is the share of 10,000 simulated seasons in which the New England Patriots (5-3) make the 14-team 2026 NFL playoffs, from the A to Z Sports model with the NFL's official tiebreakers. Updated Tue, Nov 3.

Can the Patriots win the AFC East?

The Patriots win the AFC East in 22% of simulations and earn the AFC No. 1 seed and its first-round bye in 4%.

What record do the Patriots need to make the playoffs?

In the simulations the Patriots make the playoffs 94% of the time at 10-7. Odds for every likely final record are on the Patriots page.

What are the Patriots' Super Bowl odds?

The A to Z Sports model gives the New England Patriots a 4% chance to win Super Bowl LXI and a 7% chance to reach it.

What do the Patriots need to make the playoffs?

The Patriots page lists every remaining game with the Patriots' playoff odds if they win or lose it, plus the other games around the league that help them most. Tap any result to see how the odds change.

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Playoff odds, projected standings, seeds, brackets and draft positions are estimates from A to Z Sports computer simulations, not predictions of fact and not official NFL standings, and are provided for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not betting advice. Statistical information is believed accurate but is provided without warranty. Schedule, results and betting lines from nflverse.

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