2026 season · Week 8

Baylor Bears Playoff Chances

Updated October 18, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Baylor (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) has a 4% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 4% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). Projected regular-season wins: 6.7. Biggest game left: at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Baylor at 14%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 10-2: 67% · 9-3: 13% · 8-4: <1%.

Baylor Bears odds (October 18, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff4%
Win the Big 124%
Reach the conference championship7%
First-round bye<1%
Reach the semifinals1%
Win the national title<1%

Baylor playoff odds at a glance

Baylor (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) has a 4% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 4% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). Projected regular-season wins: 6.7. Biggest game left: at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Baylor at 14%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 10-2: 67% · 9-3: 13% · 8-4: <1%.

More Big 12: Big 12 championship odds · Arizona · Arizona St · BYU · Cincinnati · Colorado · Houston · Iowa State · Kansas · Kansas St · Oklahoma St · TCU · Texas Tech · UCF · Utah · West Virginia · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated October 18, 2026 · results through Week 7 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" — your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in.
  6. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Baylor's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 4% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). The Baylor Bears are 4-2 (2-1 in the Big 12). Chance of a first-round bye: less than 1%. Chance to win the national title: less than 1%.

What does Baylor need to make the playoff?

If Baylor finishes the regular season 10-2, it makes the playoff in 67% of simulated seasons; at 9-3, 13%; at 8-4, less than 1%. The biggest game left is at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts Baylor at 14%, a loss at less than 1%. Winning the Big 12 is an automatic bid: Baylor wins it in 4% of simulations.

Who should Baylor fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Baylor most: Kansas over BYU (Week 12, +1 point); Arizona St over BYU (Week 9, +2 points); Cincinnati over BYU (Week 13, +1 point). Each number is how much that result alone raises Baylor's playoff odds.

Can Baylor win the Big 12?

Baylor reaches the Big 12 Championship in 7% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 4%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the Big 12's official tiebreakers.

Note: A to Z Media, LLC does not own any of the team, conference, league or event logos depicted within this site. All sports logos contained within this site are properties of their respective leagues, conferences, schools, teams, ownership groups and/or organizations.

If you join the newsletter, you hereby acknowledge and agree to receive email communications from A to Z Sports. You will have the option to unsubscribe at any time through a link provided in each correspondence. Review our Privacy Policy for more details.

A to Z Sports is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or otherwise associated with the College Football Playoff, CFP Administration, LLC, the NCAA, any athletic conference, any college or university, or any player, coach, or other individual. All team names, nicknames, logos, uniforms, and other marks are the property of their respective owners and are used for informational and identification purposes only.

Playoff odds, projected rankings, fields and brackets are estimates from A to Z Sports computer simulations, not predictions of fact and not official rankings, and are provided for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not betting advice. Statistical information is believed accurate but is provided without warranty. Game data from CollegeFootballData.com.

Privacy PolicyTerms and ConditionsCookie Policy