2026 season · Week 11

Baylor Bears Playoff Chances

Updated November 11, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Baylor (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) has a 6% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 6% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). Projected regular-season wins: 7.4. Biggest game left: at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Baylor at 19%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 9-3: 46% · 8-4: <1% · 7-5: 0%.

Baylor Bears odds (November 11, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff6%
Win the Big 126%
Reach the conference championship12%
First-round bye<1%
Reach the semifinals1%
Win the national title<1%

Baylor playoff odds at a glance

Baylor (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) has a 6% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 6% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). Projected regular-season wins: 7.4. Biggest game left: at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Baylor at 19%, a loss at less than 1%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 9-3: 46% · 8-4: <1% · 7-5: 0%.

More Big 12: Big 12 championship odds · Arizona · Arizona St · BYU · Cincinnati · Colorado · Houston · Iowa State · Kansas · Kansas St · Oklahoma St · TCU · Texas Tech · UCF · Utah · West Virginia · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated November 11, 2026 · results through Wed, Nov 11 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 6,000 times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff, wins its conference, reaches its title game, earns a first-round bye and wins the national title.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. The committee counts. Our odds factor in the CFP committee's latest Top 25 and where we project it goes next. The CFP Top 25 shows the committee's 12 in gold.
  6. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in. Switch to 24 teams to see the field under the 2027 rules.
  7. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  8. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Baylor's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 6% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). The Baylor Bears are 6-3 (4-2 in the Big 12). Chance of a first-round bye: less than 1%. Chance to win the national title: less than 1%.

What does Baylor need to make the playoff?

If Baylor finishes the regular season 9-3, it makes the playoff in 46% of simulated seasons; at 8-4, less than 1%; at 7-5, 0% (no at-large spot with four or more regular-season losses). The biggest game left is at BYU (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts Baylor at 19%, a loss at less than 1%. Winning the Big 12 is an automatic bid: Baylor wins it in 6% of simulations.

Who should Baylor fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Baylor most: TCU over Texas Tech (Week 13, +1 point); Kansas over BYU (Week 12, +1 point). Each number is how much that result alone raises Baylor's playoff odds.

Can Baylor win the Big 12?

Baylor reaches the Big 12 Championship in 12% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 6%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the Big 12's official tiebreakers.

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